After a successful journey to Charlottesville, VA, our Yellow Jackets emerge from this weekend with a 5-4 record, the first winning record the program has seen since being 1-0 at the beginning of the 2020 season (and does 2020 really count?). This places Tech at a 4-2 record in the ACC, still good enough to *potentially* enter the championship game. It’s a long shot, but here’s what it’ll take for us to get there.
First, we need to win our remaining ACC games against Clemson and Syracuse. At this point, these games are mandatory victories – winning both would place us at a 6-2 ACC record.
However, we don’t have complete control of our fate here. The main issue is Louisville, which emerged from last week 5-1 in ACC play after clobbering Virginia Tech 34-3. Louisville’s remaining ACC games are Virginia and Miami, and for us to make it, Louisville would need to lose both. If Louisville goes 1-1 in these games and finishes 6-2, tying our record, they win the tiebreaker because they won our head-to-head matchup at the beginning of the season in heartbreaking fashion. They’ll need to lose both and finish 5-3 for us to have a chance.
Louisville isn’t the only team presenting a threat to our chances – a reeling VT team that finishes their season 6-2 would also go the championship ahead of Georgia Tech. The tiebreaker here considers winning percentage against common opponents – a Virginia Tech team that wins out would end up with a victory over common opponent Boston College and an otherwise equal record. We just need VT to lose one of their remaining three ACC games versus Boston College, NC State, or Virginia to take them out of contention.
What other teams do we have to consider? Two-loss UNC isn’t a threat to us because we won our head-to-head matchup, so they’re out of contention supposing we win out, regardless of their results the rest of the season. However, we do need five-game winning streak Boston College to lose one of their remaining three since they have the head-to-head over us.
The remaining teams with a chance are Duke and NC State, and the tiebreaker for these teams gets a lot more complicated, involving the relative strength of ACC opponents faced since our winning records against common opponents would be the same if these teams win out. For safety, let’s assume they each need to lose one game of their remaining three each.
To summarize: Georgia Tech wins their remaining two games, and Louisville loses both of their remaining two. Definitely Virginia Tech and Boston College, and maybe Duke and NC State each take one loss in their remaining three ACC games. With that result, your Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are going to the championship!