Using coral reef data from 233 locations across the globe, this recent paper estimates that the net vertical reef accretion rate will decrease globally by 76, 149, and 156% between 2050 and 2100, depending on the emissions scenarios for representative concentration pathways (RCP) identified by the IPCC. These scenarios include RCP2.6 (warming limited to < 2 oC above pre-industrial temperatures), RCP4.5 (maintaining a 4.5W radiative forcing, a moderate scenario in which emissions peak by 2040, then decline), and RCP8.5 (emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century).
These estimates indicate that the world’s coral reefs will likely not maintain their functional role without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions and will disappear before the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 conditions.
These declines in accretion rates largely originate from reduced coral cover as a result of bleaching events rather than from the direct impacts of ocean warming or acidification.
Cornwall et al., 2022 Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 118(21), e2015265118 (https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118)