The Future of Amtrak: Sustainability, Growth, and Challenges in a Changing Climate

Written By: Pranav Acharya, Md Fazle R Chowdhury, Venkata Laxmi Darapu, Kayla Dunn, Samira Mawla, Julian Oliver 

Amtrak’s Business Model 

Like the Post Office, Amtrak is a state-owned business. It is independent of the government, but the government owns all its stock. Ticket sales cover 81% of Amtrak’s operating costs. It is heavily reliant on the Northeast Corridor, which accounts for 12.1 million (42%) of all passengers. Demand for passenger service continues to grow, and Amtrak expects total ridership to reach 66 million by 2040. 

The federal government and 17 states contribute subsidies to Amtrak to support its short-distance lines. Amtrak was granted $200 million in 2023 by the federal government to support four projects in the Northeast Corridor and Gulf Coast states. In addition, Amtrak owns 363 miles of rail in the Northeast Corridor, as well as other rail lines and parking facilities. These rail lines are leased to freight and commuter lines for use, and Amtrak receives revenue from its parking, station, and maintenance facilities. 

With a growing customer base, Amtrak plans to utilize funding from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which allocates $66 billion from 2021 through 2026, to modernize and expand its trains, stations, and infrastructure. 

To achieve its vision, Amtrak has outlined both long-term (15+ years) and short-term (<5 years) objectives. These objectives, which will be explored in more detail herein, include goals such as achieving net-zero emissions and reaching 37 million passengers. 

Impact of Climate Change on Amtrak’s Business Model 

Climate change has significantly impacted the way Amtrak does business both positively and negatively. With growing concerns about carbon emissions, more travelers are looking for lower-emission alternatives, making rail travel an increasingly attractive option. This shift toward sustainable transportation puts Amtrak in a strong position to benefit. Plus, with federal and state governments investing in green transit, Amtrak could see more financial support and infrastructure improvements. Since rail travel is already one of the most eco-friendly ways to get around, it’s an obvious choice for environmentally conscious travelers. As more people and policymakers focus on reducing their carbon footprints, Amtrak has a real competitive edge. 

On the converse, between 2006 and 2019, Amtrak experienced over 450 weather-related disruptions, including wildfires, coastal erosion, heatwaves, and mudslides. These events led to service alterations and route closures, sometimes lasting days, weeks, or even months. Such disruptions not only inconvenience passengers but also strain Amtrak’s operational resources. During this period, Amtrak incurred losses exceeding $127 million, with projections estimating an additional $220 million in revenue losses over the next decade.  

Amtrak’s infrastructure is susceptible to various climate change impacts. For example, rising temperatures can expand and warp railroad tracks, leading to potential derailments and necessitating speed restrictions. Increased precipitation and sea-level rise heighten the risk of flooding, which can damage tracks, stations, and other critical infrastructure. Coastal routes are particularly vulnerable to storm surges, which can lead to erosion and structural damage. As climate change intensifies, regulatory bodies like the Federal Railroad Administration are expected to implement stricter greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals and oversight. Complying with these evolving regulations may require Amtrak to invest in cleaner technologies and infrastructure upgrades, leading to increased operational costs. 

Climate Change Resiliency and Path to Net-Zero 

Amtrak’s commitment to sustainability has reshaped its business model. They are focusing on enhancing operational efficiency while reducing environmental impact driven by short-term and long-term strategic objectives. 

As one of their main long-term objectives, Amtrak pledged to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2045 through pursuit of energy efficiency and the use of renewable fuels. Amtrak has already started following through by replacing 2 million gallons of fossil fuel with renewable diesel in 2003. They are also investigating the use of other technologies such as fuel-cell, hydrogen, battery, etc. to support achieving 100% carbon-free electricity by 2030 as well as investing in fuel-efficient locomotives and transitioning to hybrid and electric trains where possible. 

Amtrak is also taking major steps to modernize their infrastructure by integrating climate resilience and sustainability design measures into their capital budget expenditures. There are projects focused on working to strengthen tracks, improve drainage systems, and reinforce stations against extreme weather. Investing in station upgrades, LED lighting, and renewable energy projects will also help to lower operational emissions. Further investments from Amtrak also target accelerating the development of high-speed rail corridors with full electrification to compete with air travel more effectively and prioritizing electrification in areas highly vulnerable to fuel price fluctuations and climate-related disruptions.  They are also building elevated tracks in flood-prone regions and developing real-time climate monitoring systems to anticipate and mitigate extreme weather impacts. 

Changes that will impact the Amtrak customer experience include plans to eliminate disposable tableware in lounges and introducing electric buses in the national network. Customers are becoming more environmentally conscious in the current economy, so Amtrak is leveraging that for competitive advantage to transform the train industry by promoting its impact on the environment. 

Measuring & Reporting Carbon Performance 

Amtrak actively tracks and manages its carbon emissions by calculating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with its operations, including: 

• Fuel Consumption: The primary source of Amtrak’s emissions, particularly from diesel-powered trains. For electric trains, emissions depend on the carbon intensity of the electricity source (renewable vs. fossil fuels). 

• Energy Usage: Emissions tied to electricity consumption for train operations, including stations, lighting, and heating/cooling systems on trains. 

• Other Operational Activities: Emissions from maintenance facilities, business travel, and other related functions. 

Amtrak evaluates and reports its carbon performance through a comprehensive approach that includes detailed sustainability reports, third-party verification, and adherence to global standards. The company publishes annual sustainability reports aligned with the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) Standards, documenting its progress in reducing GHG emissions and advancing environmental goals. These reports include: 

• Scope 1: Direct emissions from fuel usage. 

• Scope 2: Indirect emissions from electricity consumption. 

• Scope 3: Other indirect emissions, including supply chain and business travel. 

Amtrak voluntarily reports its climate-related data and impacts through the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) framework, publicly disclosing its GHG emissions and climate change mitigation strategies.  

Some highlights from the 2023 Sustainability report include: 

• CDP scores range from A (strong climate data and strategy) to E. In 2019, Amtrak received a B score, ranking among the leading transport-sector organizations in identifying and managing climate-related risks and opportunities.  

• Replacing more than 2 million gallons of fossil fuel with renewable diesel on California’s state-supported Capitol Corridor, Pacific Surfliner and Amtrak San Joaquins passenger trains, reducing GHG emissions by roughly 63%.  

• Eliminating disposable tableware at the Metropolitan Lounge inside Moynihan Train Hall; transitioning from individually prepackaged products to in-house food preparation and plating reduced the Lounge’s plastic packaging by 75%.  

• Adding the first electric bus to Amtrak’s National Network of Thruway service on the Pacific Northwest’s Cascades route, reducing annual GHG emissions by 109 metric tons.  

• Developing resilient design guidelines for capital and maintenance projects, making Amtrak climate-ready for changing conditions. 

Climate change presents both challenges and opportunities for Amtrak’s business model. While increased demand for sustainable transportation could strengthen its market position, climate-related disruptions pose operational and financial risks. Amtrak’s ongoing sustainability efforts are commendable, but additional investments in infrastructure resilience, electrification, and customer incentives will be critical in ensuring long-term success. By proactively addressing climate risks and leveraging its environmental advantages, Amtrak can solidify itself as a leader in sustainable transportation.