ICML 2024

International Conference on Machine Learning | July 21 – 27, 2024

The International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) is globally renowned for presenting and publishing cutting-edge research on all aspects of machine learning used in closely related areas like artificial intelligence, statistics and data science, as well as important application areas such as machine vision, computational biology, speech recognition, and robotics.

ICML is one of the fastest growing artificial intelligence conferences in the world. Discover Georgia Tech’s experts and their contributions shaping machine learning.

Main Conference Opening

Georgia Tech at ICML 2024

Explore Georgia Tech’s experts and the organizations they are working with at ICML.

Partner Organizations

Adobe Research • Amazon • Anthropic • Arizona State University • ByteDance • Caltech • Carnegie Mellon University • Cisco Research • Dalhousie University • Georgia Tech • Google • Harvard University • Helixon AI • IIIS, Tsinghua • IIT Madras • Institute of Science and Technology Austria • Institute of Science and Technology • Johns Hopkins University • Luma AI • Massachusetts Institute of Technology • Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems • Meta • Microsoft • Nanjing University • NVIDIA • Peking University • Pennsylvania State University • Purdue University • Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute • Shihuihong • Stanford University • Temple University • Texas A&M University – College Station • The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen • Tsinghua University • Uber • Ukrainian Catholic University • University of Alberta • University of California, Los Angeles • University of California, San Diego • University of California, Santa Barbara • University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign • University of Oxford • University of Science and Technology of China • University of Southern California • University of Texas, Austin • William and Mary

Faculty with number of papers


Tech Experts Grouped by Lead Organization

More than 200 experts are working together on Georgia Tech research at ICML. The work covers multiple application and technical areas.

The network chart shows authors grouped by the lead organization of each team. Two Georgia Tech faculty — Bo Dai from the School of Computational Science and Engineering and Pan Li from the School of Electrical and Computer Engineering — are on multiple teams, some led Georgia Tech and others by external partners.

Labels on the network chart show authors who are on two or more teams.


Global Program

Explore the entire ICML 2024 program by the number of papers based on topic (where data is available). The chart is currently filtered to Georgia Tech papers/topics.

Select an organization with the dropdown menu to see papers and people from the organization. (TIP: clear the dropdown filter or uncheck “All” in the dropdown, then search for an org name and multi-select the results.)

Hover on the bar chart to see the paper details.

Hybrid Machine Learning Model Untangles Web of Communication in the Brain 🔗

By Bryant Wine

A new machine learning (ML) model created at Georgia Tech is helping neuroscientists better understand communications between brain regions. Insights from the model could lead to personalized medicine, better brain-computer interfaces, and advances in neurotechnology.

The Georgia Tech group combined two current ML methods into their hybrid model called MRM-GP (Multi-Region Markovian Gaussian Process). 

Research team (l to r from top): Weihan Li, Chengrui Li, Yule Wang, and Anqi Wu

Neuroscientists who use MRM-GP learn more about communications and interactions within the brain. This in turn improves understanding of brain functions and disorders.

“Clinically, MRM-GP could enhance diagnostic tools and treatment monitoring by identifying and analyzing neural activity patterns linked to various brain disorders,” said Weihan Li, the study’s lead researcher. 


New Machine Learning Method Lets Scientists Use Generative AI to Design Custom Molecules and Other Complex Structures🔗

By Bryant Wine

New research from Georgia Tech is giving scientists more control options over generative artificial intelligence (AI) models in their studies. Greater customization from this research can lead to discovery of new drugs, materials, and other applications tailor-made for consumers.

The Tech group dubbed its method PRODIGY (PROjected DIffusion for controlled Graph Generation). PRODIGY enables diffusion models to generate 3D images of complex structures, such as molecules from chemical formulas. 

Research team (l to r): Kartik Sharma, Srijan Kumar, Rakshit S. Trivedi

Scientists in pharmacology, materials science, social network analysis, and other fields can use PRODIGY to simulate large-scale networks. By generating 3D molecules from multiple graph datasets, the group proved that PRODIGY could handle complex structures.

In keeping with its name, PRODIGY is the first plug-and-play machine learning (ML) approach to controllable graph generation in diffusion models. This method overcomes a known limitation inhibiting diffusion models from broad use in science and engineering.

Attention Mechanisms

Algorithm and Hardness for Dynamic Attention Maintenance in Large Language Models
Jan van den Brand, Zhao Song, Tianyi Zhou

The attention scheme is one of the key components over all the LLMs, such as BERT, GPT-1, Transformers, GPT-2, 3, 3.5 and 4. Inspired by previous theoretical study of static version of the attention multiplication problem [Zandieh, Han, Daliri, and Karbasi ICML 2023, Alman and Song NeurIPS 2023], we formally define a dynamic version of attention matrix multiplication problem. In each iteration we update one entry in key matrix $K \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times d}$ or value matrix $V \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times d}$. In the query stage, we receive $(i,j) \in [n] \times [d]$ as input, and want to answer $(D^{-1} A V)_{i,j}$, where $A:=\exp(QK^\top) \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times n}$ is a square matrix and $D := \mathrm{diag}(A {\bf 1}_n) \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times n}$ is a diagonal matrix and ${\bf 1}_n$ denotes a length-$n$ vector that all the entries are ones. We provide two results: an algorithm and a conditional lower bound. Inspired by the lazy update idea from [Demetrescu and Italiano FOCS 2000, Sankowski FOCS 2004, Cohen, Lee and Song STOC 2019, Brand SODA 2020], we provide a data-structure that uses $O(n^{\omega(1,1,\tau)-\tau})$ amortized update time, and $O(n^{1+\tau})$ worst-case query time, where $n^{\omega(1,1,\tau)}$ denotes $\mathrm(n,n,n^\tau)$ with matrix multiplication exponent $\omega$ and $\tau$ denotes a constant in $(0,1]$. We also show that unless the hinted matrix vector multiplication conjecture [Brand, Nanongkai and Saranurak FOCS 2019] is false, there is no algorithm that can use both $O(n^{\omega(1,1,\tau) – \tau- \Omega(1)})$ amortized update time, and $O(n^{1+\tau-\Omega(1)})$ worst query time.

Locality-Sensitive Hashing-Based Efficient Point Transformer with Applications in High-Energy Physics
Siqi Miao, Zhiyuan Lu, Mia Liu, Javier Duarte, Pan Li

This study introduces a novel transformer model optimized for large-scale point cloud processing in scientific domains such as high-energy physics (HEP) and astrophysics. Addressing the limitations of graph neural networks and standard transformers, our model integrates local inductive bias and achieves near-linear complexity with hardware-friendly regular operations. One contribution of this work is the quantitative analysis of the error-complexity tradeoff of various sparsification techniques for building efficient transformers. Our findings highlight the superiority of using locality-sensitive hashing (LSH), especially OR & AND-construction LSH, in kernel approximation for large-scale point cloud data with local inductive bias. Based on this finding, we propose LSH-based Efficient Point Transformer (**HEPT**), which combines E$^2$LSH with OR & AND constructions and is built upon regular computations. HEPT demonstrates remarkable performance on two critical yet time-consuming HEP tasks, significantly outperforming existing GNNs and transformers in accuracy and computational speed, marking a significant advancement in geometric deep learning and large-scale scientific data processing. Our code is available at https://github.com/Graph-COM/HEPT.

Batch/Offline

Target Networks and Over-parameterization Stabilize Off-policy Bootstrapping with Function Approximation
Fengdi Che, Chenjun Xiao, Jincheng Mei, Bo Dai, Ramki Gummadi, Oscar Ramirez, Christopher Harris, Rupam Mahmood, Dale Schuurmans

We prove that the combination of a target network and over-parameterized linear function approximation establishes a weaker convergence condition for bootstrapped value estimation in certain cases, even with off-policy data. Our condition is naturally satisfied for expected updates over the entire state-action space or learning with a batch of complete trajectories from episodic Markov decision processes. Notably, using only a target network or an over-parameterized model does not provide such a convergence guarantee. Additionally, we extend our results to learning with truncated trajectories, showing that convergence is achievable for all tasks with minor modifications, akin to value truncation for the final states in trajectories. Our primary result focuses on temporal difference estimation for prediction, providing high-probability value estimation error bounds and empirical analysis on Baird’s counterexample and a Four-room task. Furthermore, we explore the control setting, demonstrating that similar convergence conditions apply to Q-learning.

Bayesian Models and Methods

Transitional Uncertainty with Layered Intermediate Predictions
Ryan Benkert, Mohit Prabhushankar, Ghassan AlRegib

In this paper, we discuss feature engineering for single-pass uncertainty estimation. For accurate uncertainty estimates, neural networks must extract differences in the feature space that quantify uncertainty. This could be achieved by current single-pass approaches that maintain feature distances between data points as they traverse the network. While initial results are promising, maintaining feature distances within the network representations frequently inhibits information compression and opposes the learning objective. We study this effect theoretically and empirically to arrive at a simple conclusion: preserving feature distances in the output is beneficial when the preserved features contribute to learning the label distribution and act in opposition otherwise. We then propose Transitional Uncertainty with Layered Intermediate Predictions (TULIP) as a simple approach to address the shortcomings of current single-pass estimators. Specifically, we implement feature preservation by extracting features from intermediate representations before information is collapsed by subsequent layers. We refer to the underlying preservation mechanism as transitional feature preservation. We show that TULIP matches or outperforms current single-pass methods on standard benchmarks and in practical settings where these methods are less reliable (imbalances, complex architectures, medical modalities).

Chemistry and Drug Discovery

FAFE: Immune Complex Modeling with Geodesic Distance Loss on Noisy Group Frames
Ruidong Wu, Ruihan Guo, Rui Wang, Xu Yue, Jiahan Li, Jianzhu Ma, qiang liu, Yunan Luo, Jian Peng

Despite the striking success of general protein folding models such as AlphaFold2 (AF2), the accurate computational modeling of antibody-antigen complexes remains a challenging task. In this paper, we first analyze AF2’s primary loss function, known as the Frame Aligned Point Error (FAPE), and raise a previously overlooked issue that FAPE tends to face gradient vanishing problem on high-rotational-error targets. To address this fundamental limitation, we propose a novel geodesic loss called Frame Aligned Frame Error (FAFE, denoted as F2E to distinguish from FAPE), which enables the model to better optimize both the rotational and translational errors between two frames. We then prove that F2E can be reformulated as a group-aware geodesic loss, which translates the optimization of the residue-to-residue error to optimizing group-to-group geodesic frame distance. By fine-tuning AF2 with our proposed new loss function, we attain a correct rate of 52.3% (DockQ > 0.23) on an evaluation set and 43.8% correct rate on a subset with low homology, with improvement over AF2 by 182% and 100% respectively.

Computer Vision

Position: Mission Critical – Satellite Data is a Distinct Modality in Machine Learning
Esther Rolf, Konstantin Klemmer, Caleb Robinson, Hannah Kerner

Satellite data has the potential to inspire a seismic shift for machine learning—one in which we rethink existing practices designed for traditional data modalities. As machine learning for satellite data (SatML) gains traction for its real-world impact, our field is at a crossroads. We can either continue applying ill-suited approaches, or we can initiate a new research agenda that centers around the unique characteristics and challenges of satellite data. This position paper argues that satellite data constitutes a distinct modality for machine learning research and that we must recognize it as such to advance the quality and impact of SatML research across theory, methods, and deployment. We outline research directions, critical discussion questions and actionable suggestions to transform SatML from merely an intriguing application area to a dedicated research discipline that helps move the needle on big challenges for machine learning and society.

Deep Learning

To Cool or not to Cool? Temperature Network Meets Large Foundation Models via DRO
Zi-Hao Qiu, Siqi Guo, Mao Xu, Tuo Zhao, Lijun Zhang, Tianbao Yang

The temperature parameter plays a profound role during training and/or inference with large foundation models (LFMs) such as large language models (LLMs) and CLIP models. Particularly, it adjusts the logits in the softmax function in LLMs, which is crucial for next token generation, and it scales the similarities in the contrastive loss for training CLIP models. A significant question remains: “ Is it viable to learn a neural network to predict a personalized temperature of any input data for enhancing LFMs?” In this paper, we present a principled framework for learning a small yet generalizable temperature prediction network (TempNet) to improve LFMs. Our solution is composed of a novel learning framework with robust losses underpinned by constrained distributionally robust optimization (DRO), and a properly designed TempNet with theoretical inspiration. TempNet can be trained together with a large foundation model from scratch or learned separately given a pretrained foundation model. It is not only useful for predicting personalized temperature to promote the training of LFMs but also generalizable and transferable to new tasks. Our experiments on LLMs and CLIP models demonstrate that TempNet greatly improves the performance of existing solutions or models.

Universal Consistency of Wide and Deep ReLU Neural Networks and Minimax Optimal Convergence Rates for Kolmogorov-Donoho Optimal Function Classes
Hyunouk Ko, Xiaoming Huo

In this paper, we prove the universal consistency of wide and deep ReLU neural network classifiers. We also give sufficient conditions for a class of probability measures for which classifiers based on neural networks achieve minimax optimal rates of convergence. The result applies to a wide range of known function classes. In particular, while most previous works impose explicit smoothness assumptions on the regression function, our framework encompasses more general settings. The proposed neural networks are either the minimizers of the $0$-$1$ loss that exhibit a benign overfitting behavior.

Deep RL

Adaptive Horizon Actor-Critic for Policy Learning in Contact-Rich Differentiable Simulation
Ignat Georgiev, Krishnan Srinivasan, Jie Xu, Eric Heiden, Animesh Garg

Model-Free Reinforcement Learning (MFRL), leveraging the policy gradient theorem, has demonstrated considerable success in continuous control tasks. However, these approaches are plagued by high gradient variance due to zeroth-order gradient estimation, resulting in suboptimal policies. Conversely, First-Order Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (FO-MBRL) methods employing differentiable simulation provide gradients with reduced variance but are susceptible to sampling error in scenarios involving stiff dynamics, such as physical contact. This paper investigates the source of this error and introduces Adaptive Horizon Actor-Critic (AHAC), an FO-MBRL algorithm that reduces gradient error by adapting the model-based horizon to avoid stiff dynamics. Empirical findings reveal that AHAC outperforms MFRL baselines, attaining 40% more reward across a set of locomotion tasks and efficiently scaling to high-dimensional control environments with improved wall-clock-time efficiency. [adaptive-horizon-actor-critic.github.io](https://adaptive-horizon-actor-critic.github.io/)

Domain Adaptation and Transfer Learning

Pairwise Alignment Improves Graph Domain Adaptation
Shikun Liu, Deyu Zou, Han Zhao, Pan Li

Graph-based methods, pivotal for label inference over interconnected objects in many real-world applications, often encounter generalization challenges, if the graph used for model training differs significantly from the graph used for testing. This work delves into Graph Domain Adaptation (GDA) to address the unique complexities of distribution shifts over graph data, where interconnected data points experience shifts in features, labels, and in particular, connecting patterns. We propose a novel, theoretically principled method, Pairwise Alignment (Pair-Align) to counter graph structure shift by mitigating conditional structure shift (CSS) and label shift (LS). Pair-Align uses edge weights to recalibrate the influence among neighboring nodes to handle CSS and adjusts the classification loss with label weights to handle LS. Our method demonstrates superior performance in real-world applications, including node classification with region shift in social networks, and the pileup mitigation task in particle colliding experiments. For the first application, we also curate the largest dataset by far for GDA studies. Our method shows strong performance in synthetic and other existing benchmark datasets.

Generative Models and Autoencoders

Diffuse, Sample, Project: Plug-And-Play Controllable Graph Generation
Kartik Sharma, Srijan Kumar, Rakshit Trivedi

Diffusion models lend transformative capabilities to the graph generation task, yet controlling the properties of the generated graphs remains challenging. Recent approaches augment support for controlling soft, differentiable properties but they fail to handle user-specified hard constraints that are non-differentiable. This often results in vague control, unsuitable for applications like drug discovery that demand satisfaction of precise constraints, e.g., the maximum number of bonds. To address this, we formalize the problem of controlled graph generation and introduce PRODIGY (PROjected DIffusion for controlled Graph Generation), an innovative plug-and-play approach enabling the generation of graphs with precise control, from any pre-trained diffusion model. PRODIGY employs a novel operator to project the samples at each diffusion step onto the specified constrained space. For a large class of practical constraints and a variety of graphs, our extensive experiments demonstrate that PRODIGY empowers state-of-the-art continuous and discrete diffusion models to produce graphs meeting specific, hard constraints. Our approach achieves up to 100% constraint satisfaction for non-attributed and molecular graphs, under a variety of constraints, marking a significant step forward in precise, interpretable graph generation. Code is provided on the project webpage: [https://prodigy-diffusion.github.io/](https://prodigy-diffusion.github.io/).

VideoPoet: A Large Language Model for Zero-Shot Video Generation
Dan Kondratyuk, Lijun Yu, Xiuye Gu, Jose Lezama, Jonathan Huang, Grant Schindler, Rachel Hornung, Vighnesh N Birodkar, Jimmy Yan, Krishna Somandepalli, Hassan Akbari, Yair Alon, Yong Cheng, Joshua V Dillon, Agrim Gupta, Meera Hahn, Anja Hauth, Alonso Martinez, David Minnen, Mikhail Sirotenko, Kihyuk Sohn, Xuan Yang, Hartwig Adam, Ming-Hsuan Yang, Irfan Essa, Huisheng Wang, Bryan Seybold, Lu Jiang

We present VideoPoet, a language model capable of synthesizing high-quality video from a large variety of conditioning signals. VideoPoet employs a decoder-only transformer architecture that processes multimodal inputs — including images, videos, text, and audio. The training protocol follows that of Large Language Models (LLMs), consisting of two stages: pretraining and task-specific adaptation. During pretraining, VideoPoet incorporates a mixture of multimodal generative objectives within an autoregressive Transformer framework. The pretrained LLM serves as a foundation that can be adapted for a range of video generation tasks. We present empirical results demonstrating the model’s state-of-the-art capabilities in zero-shot video generation, specifically highlighting the ability to generate high-fidelity motions. Project page: http://sites.research.google/videopoet/

Graph Neural Networks

Graph Adversarial Diffusion Convolution
Songtao Liu, Jinghui Chen, Tianfan Fu, Lu Lin, Marinka Zitnik, Dinghao Wu

This paper introduces a min-max optimization formulation for the Graph Signal Denoising (GSD) problem. In this formulation, we first maximize the second term of GSD by introducing perturbations to the graph structure based on Laplacian distance and then minimize the overall loss of the GSD. By solving the min-max optimization problem, we derive a new variant of the Graph Diffusion Convolution (GDC) architecture, called Graph Adversarial Diffusion Convolution (GADC). GADC differs from GDC by incorporating an additional term that enhances robustness against adversarial attacks on the graph structure and noise in node features. Moreover, GADC improves the performance of GDC on heterophilic graphs. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of GADC across various datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/SongtaoLiu0823/GADC.

Large Language Models

BBox-Adapter: Lightweight Adapting for Black-Box Large Language Models
Haotian Sun, Yuchen Zhuang, Wei Wei, Chao Zhang, Bo Dai

Adapting state-of-the-art Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4 and Gemini for specific tasks is challenging. Due to the opacity in their parameters, embeddings, and even output probabilities, existing fine-tuning adaptation methods are inapplicable. Consequently, adapting these black-box LLMs is only possible through their API services, raising concerns about transparency, privacy, and cost. To address these challenges, we introduce BBox-Adapter, a novel lightweight adapter for black-box LLMs. BBox-Adapter distinguishes target and source domain data by treating target data as positive and source data as negative. It employs a ranking-based Noise Contrastive Estimation (NCE) loss to promote the likelihood of target domain data while penalizing that of the source domain. Furthermore, it features an online adaptation mechanism, which incorporates real-time positive data sampling from ground-truth, human, or AI feedback, coupled with negative data from previous adaptations. Extensive experiments demonstrate BBox-Adapter’s effectiveness and cost efficiency. It improves model performance by up to 6.77% across diverse tasks and domains, while reducing training and inference costs by 31.30x and 1.84x, respectively.

MEMORYLLM: Towards Self-Updatable Large Language Models
Yu Wang, Yifan Gao, Xiusi Chen, Haoming Jiang, Shiyang Li, Jingfeng Yang, Qingyu Yin, Zheng Li, Xian Li, Bing Yin, Jingbo Shang, Julian McAuley

Existing Large Language Models (LLMs) usually remain static after deployment, which might make it hard to inject new knowledge into the model. We aim to build models containing a considerable portion of self-updatable parameters, enabling the model to integrate new knowledge effectively and efficiently. To this end, we introduce MEMORYLLM, a model that comprises a transformer and a fixed-size memory pool within the latent space of the transformer. MEMORYLLM can self-update with text knowledge and memorize the knowledge injected earlier. Our evaluations demonstrate the ability of MEMORYLLM to effectively incorporate new knowledge, as evidenced by its performance on model editing benchmarks. Meanwhile, the model exhibits long-term information retention capacity, which is validated through our custom-designed evaluations and long-context benchmarks. MEMORYLLM also shows operational integrity without any sign of performance degradation even after nearly a million memory updates. Our code and model are open-sourced at https://github.com/wangyu-ustc/MemoryLLM.

Unveiling and Harnessing Hidden Attention Sinks: Enhancing Large Language Models without Training through Attention Calibration
Zhongzhi Yu, Zheng Wang, Yonggan Fu, Shi Huihong, Khalid Shaikh, Yingyan (Celine) Lin

Attention is a fundamental component behind the remarkable achievements of large language models (LLMs). However, our current understanding of the attention mechanism, especially regarding how attention distributions are established, remains limited. Inspired by recent studies that explore the presence of attention sink in the initial token, which receives disproportionately large attention scores despite their lack of semantic importance, this work delves deeper into this phenomenon. We aim to provide a more profound understanding of the existence of attention sinks within LLMs and to uncover ways to enhance the achievable accuracy of LLMs by directly optimizing the attention distributions, without the need for weight finetuning. Specifically, this work begins with comprehensive visualizations of the attention distributions in LLMs during inference across various inputs and tasks. Based on these visualizations, to the best of our knowledge, we are the first to discover that (1) attention sinks occur not only at the start of sequences but also within later tokens of the input, and (2) not all attention sinks have a positive impact on the achievable accuracy of LLMs. Building upon our findings, we propose a training-free Attention Calibration Technique (ACT) that automatically optimizes the attention distributions on the fly during inference in an input-adaptive manner. Extensive experiments validate that ACT consistently enhances the accuracy of various LLMs across different applications. Specifically, ACT achieves an average improvement of up to $7.30\%$ in accuracy across different datasets when applied to Llama-30B.

When Linear Attention Meets Autoregressive Decoding: Towards More Effective and Efficient Linearized Large Language Models
Haoran You, Yichao Fu, Zheng Wang, Amir Yazdanbakhsh, Yingyan (Celine) Lin

Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance in language tasks but face two significant bottlenecks: (1) quadratic complexity in the attention module as the number of tokens increases, and (2) limited efficiency due to the sequential processing nature of autoregressive LLMs during generation. While linear attention and speculative decoding offer potential solutions, their applicability and synergistic potential for enhancing autoregressive LLMs remain uncertain. We conduct the first comprehensive study on the efficacy of existing linear attention methods for autoregressive LLMs, integrating them with speculative decoding. We introduce an augmentation technique for linear attention that ensures compatibility with speculative decoding, enabling more efficient training and serving of LLMs. Extensive experiments and ablation studies involving seven existing linear attention models and five encoder/decoder-based LLMs consistently validate the effectiveness of our augmented linearized LLMs. Notably, our approach achieves up to a 6.67 reduction in perplexity on the LLaMA model and up to a 2$\times$ speedup during generation compared to prior linear attention methods. Codes and models are available at https://github.com/GATECH-EIC/Linearized-LLM.

Large Scale, Parallel and Distributed

A Federated Stochastic Multi-level Compositional Minimax Algorithm for Deep AUC Maximization
Xinwen Zhang, Ali Payani, Myungjin Lee, Richard Souvenir, Hongchang Gao

AUC maximization is an effective approach to address the imbalanced data classification problem in federated learning. In the past few years, a couple of federated AUC maximization approaches have been developed based on the minimax optimization. However, directly solving a minimax optimization problem to maximize the AUC score cannot achieve satisfactory performance. To address this issue, we propose to maximize AUC via optimizing a federated multi-level compositional minimax problem. Specifically, we develop a novel federated multi-level compositional minimax algorithm with rigorous theoretical guarantees to solve this new learning paradigm in both algorithmic design and theoretical analysis. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work studying the multi-level minimax optimization problem. Additionally, extensive empirical evaluations confirm the efficacy of our proposed approach.

Integrated Hardware Architecture and Device Placement Search
Irene Wang, Jakub Tarnawski, Amar Phanishayee, Divya Mahajan

Distributed execution of deep learning training involves a dynamic interplay between hardware accelerator architecture and device placement strategy. This is the first work to explore the co-optimization of determining the optimal architecture and device placement strategy through novel algorithms, improving the balance of computational resources, memory usage, and data distribution. Our architecture search leverages tensor and vector units, determining their quantity and dimensionality, and on-chip and off-chip memory configurations. It also determines the microbatch size and decides whether to recompute or stash activations, balancing the memory footprint of training and storage size. For each explored architecture configuration, we use an Integer Linear Program (ILP) to find the optimal schedule for executing operators on the accelerator. The ILP results then integrate with a dynamic programming solution to identify the most effective device placement strategy, combining data, pipeline, and tensor model parallelism across multiple accelerators. Our approach achieves higher throughput on large language models compared to the state-of-the-art TPUv4 and the Spotlight accelerator search framework. The entire source code of PHAZE is available at https://github.com/msr-fiddle/phaze.

Learning Theory

The good, the bad and the ugly sides of data augmentation: An implicit spectral regularization perspective
Chi-Heng Lin, Chiraag Kaushik, Eva Dyer, Vidya Muthukumar

Data augmentation (DA) is a powerful workhorse for bolstering performance in modern machine learning. Specific augmentations like translations and scaling in computer vision are traditionally believed to improve generalization by generating new (artificial) data from the same distribution. However, this traditional viewpoint does not explain the success of prevalent augmentations in modern machine learning (e.g. randomized masking, cutout, mixup), that greatly alter the training data distribution. In this work, we develop a new theoretical framework to characterize the impact of a general class of DA on underparameterized and overparameterized linear model generalization. Our framework reveals that DA induces implicit spectral regularization through a combination of two distinct effects: a) manipulating the relative proportion of eigenvalues of the data covariance matrix in a training-data-dependent manner, and b) uniformly boosting the entire spectrum of the data covariance matrix through ridge regression. These effects, when applied to popular augmentations, give rise to a wide variety of phenomena, including discrepancies in generalization between overparameterized and underparameterized regimes and differences between regression and classification tasks. Our framework highlights the nuanced and sometimes surprising impacts of DA on generalization, and serves as a testbed for novel augmentation design.

Neuroscience, Cognitive Science

Decomposed Linear Dynamical Systems (dLDS) for learning the latent components of neural dynamics
Noga Mudrik, Christopher Rozell, Adam Charles

Learning interpretable representations of neural dynamics at a population level is a crucial first step to understanding how observed neural activity relates to perception and behavior. Models of neural dynamics often focus on either low-dimensional projections of neural activity or on learning dynamical systems that explicitly relate to the neural state over time. We discuss how these two approaches are interrelated by considering dynamical systems as representative of flows on a low-dimensional manifold. Building on this concept, we propose a new decomposed dynamical system model that represents complex non-stationary and nonlinear dynamics of time series data as a sparse combination of simpler, more interpretable components. Our model is trained through a dictionary learning procedure, where we leverage recent results in tracking sparse vectors over time. The decomposed nature of the dynamics is more expressive than previous switched approaches for a given number of parameters and enables modeling of overlapping and non-stationary dynamics. In both continuous-time and discrete-time instructional examples, we demonstrate that our model effectively approximates the original system, learns efficient representations, and captures smooth transitions between dynamical modes. Furthermore, we highlight our model’s ability to efficiently capture and demix population dynamics generated from multiple independent subnetworks, a task that is computationally impractical for switched models. Finally, we apply our model to neural “full brain” recordings of C. elegans data, illustrating a diversity of dynamics that is obscured when classified into discrete states.

Multi-Region Markovian Gaussian Process: An Efficient Method to Discover Directional Communications Across Multiple Brain Regions
Weihan Li, Chengrui Li, Yule Wang, Anqi Wu

Studying the complex interactions between different brain regions is crucial in neuroscience. Various statistical methods have explored the latent communication across multiple brain regions. Two main categories are the Gaussian Process (GP) and Linear Dynamical System (LDS), each with unique strengths. The GP-based approach effectively discovers latent variables with frequency bands and communication directions. Conversely, the LDS-based approach is computationally efficient but lacks powerful expressiveness in latent representation. In this study, we merge both methodologies by creating an LDS mirroring a multi-output GP, termed Multi-Region Markovian Gaussian Process (MRM-GP). Our work establishes a connection between an LDS and a multi-output GP that explicitly models frequencies and phase delays within the latent space of neural recordings. Consequently, the model achieves a linear inference cost over time points and provides an interpretable low-dimensional representation, revealing communication directions across brain regions and separating oscillatory communications into different frequency bands.

Non-Convex

Understanding Adam Optimizer via Online Learning of Updates: Adam is FTRL in Disguise
Kwangjun Ahn, Zhiyu Zhang, Yunbum Kook, Yan Dai

Despite the success of the Adam optimizer in practice, the theoretical understanding of its algorithmic components still remains limited. In particular, most existing analyses of Adam show the convergence rate that can be simply achieved by non-adative algorithms like SGD. In this work, we provide a different perspective based on online learning that underscores the importance of Adam’s algorithmic components. Inspired by Cutkosky et al. (2023), we consider the framework called online learning of updates/increments, where we choose the updates/increments of an optimizer based on an online learner. With this framework, the design of a good optimizer is reduced to the design of a good online learner. Our main observation is that Adam corresponds to a principled online learning framework called Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL). Building on this observation, we study the benefits of its algorithmic components from the online learning perspective.

Online Learning and Bandits

Best of Both Worlds Guarantees for Smoothed Online Quadratic Optimization
Neelkamal Bhuyan, Debankur Mukherjee, Adam Wierman

We study the smoothed online quadratic optimization (SOQO) problem where, at each round $t$, a player plays an action $x_t$ in response to a quadratic hitting cost and an additional squared $\ell_2$-norm cost for switching actions. This problem class has strong connections to a wide range of application domains including smart grid management, adaptive control, and data center management, where switching-efficient algorithms are highly sought after. We study the SOQO problem in both adversarial and stochastic settings, and in this process, perform the first stochastic analysis of this class of problems. We provide the online optimal algorithm when the minimizers of the hitting cost function evolve as a general stochastic process, which, for the case of martingale process, takes the form of a *distribution-agnostic dynamic interpolation algorithm* that we call Lazy Adaptive Interpolation (LAI). Next, we present the stochastic-adversarial trade-off by proving an $\Omega(T)$ expected regret for the adversarial optimal algorithm in the literature (ROBD) with respect to LAI and, a sub-optimal competitive ratio for LAI in the adversarial setting. Finally, we present a best-of-both-worlds algorithm that obtains a robust adversarial performance while simultaneously achieving a near-optimal stochastic performance.

Other Representation Learning

Balanced Data, Imbalanced Spectra: Unveiling Class Disparities with Spectral Imbalance
Chiraag Kaushik, Ran Liu, Chi-Heng Lin, Amrit Khera, Matthew Jin, Wenrui Ma, Vidya Muthukumar, Eva Dyer

Classification models are expected to perform equally well for different classes, yet in practice, there are often large gaps in their performance. This issue of class bias is widely studied in cases of datasets with sample imbalance, but is relatively overlooked in balanced datasets. In this work, we introduce the concept of spectral imbalance in features as a potential source for class disparities and study the connections between spectral imbalance and class bias in both theory and practice. To build the connection between spectral imbalance and class gap, we develop a theoretical framework for studying class disparities and derive exact expressions for the per-class error in a high-dimensional mixture model setting. We then study this phenomenon in 11 different state-of-the-art pre-trained encoders, and show how our proposed framework can be used to compare the quality of encoders, as well as evaluate and combine data augmentation strategies to mitigate the issue. Our work sheds light on the class-dependent effects of learning, and provides new insights into how state-of-the-art pre-trained features may have unknown biases that can be diagnosed through their spectra.

Reinforcement Learning from Reachability Specifications: PAC Guarantees with Expected Conditional Distance
Jakub Svoboda, Suguman Bansal, Krishnendu Chatterjee

Reinforcement Learning (RL) from temporal logical specifications is a fundamental problem in sequential decision making. One of the basic and core such specification is the reachability specification that requires a target set to be eventually visited. Despite strong empirical results for RL from such specifications, the theoretical guarantees are bleak, including the impossibility of Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) guarantee for reachability specifications. Given the impossibility result, in this work we consider the problem of RL from reachability specifications along with the information of expected conditional distance (ECD). We present (a) lower bound results which establish the necessity of ECD information for PAC guarantees and (b) an algorithm that establishes PAC-guarantees given the ECD information. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first RL from reachability specifications that does not make any assumptions on the underlying environment to learn policies.

Probabilistic Methods

Conformal prediction for multi-dimensional time series by ellipsoidal sets
Chen Xu, Hanyang Jiang, Yao Xie

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building prediction intervals for univariate responses. In this work, we develop a sequential CP method called $\texttt{MultiDimSPCI}$ that builds prediction $\textit{regions}$ for a multivariate response, especially in the context of multivariate time series, which are not exchangeable. Theoretically, we estimate $\textit{finite-sample}$ high-probability bounds on the conditional coverage gap. Empirically, we demonstrate that $\texttt{MultiDimSPCI}$ maintains valid coverage on a wide range of multivariate time series while producing smaller prediction regions than CP and non-CP baselines.

Reinforcement Learning

Provable Representation with Efficient Planning for Partially Observable Reinforcement Learning
Hongming Zhang, Tongzheng Ren, Chenjun Xiao, Dale Schuurmans, Bo Dai

In most real-world reinforcement learning applications, state information is only partially observable, which breaks the Markov decision process assumption and leads to inferior performance for algorithms that conflate observations with state. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), on the other hand, provide a general framework that allows for partial observability to be accounted for in *learning, exploration and planning*, but presents significant computational and statistical challenges. To address these difficulties, we develop a representation-based perspective that leads to a coherent framework and tractable algorithmic approach for practical reinforcement learning from partial observations. We provide a theoretical analysis for justifying the statistical efficiency of the proposed algorithm, and also empirically demonstrate the proposed algorithm can surpass state-of-the-art performance with partial observations across various benchmarks, advancing reliable reinforcement learning towards more practical applications.

Robustness

Few-shot Adaptation to Distribution Shifts By Mixing Source and Target Embeddings
Yihao Xue, Ali Payani, Yu Yang, Baharan Mirzasoleiman

Pretrained machine learning models need to be adapted to distribution shifts when deployed in new target environments. When obtaining labeled data from the target distribution is expensive, few-shot adaptation with only a few examples from the target distribution becomes essential. In this work, we propose MixPro, a lightweight and highly data-efficient approach for few-shot adaptation. MixPro first generates a relatively large dataset by mixing (linearly combining) pre-trained embeddings of large source data with those of the few target examples. This process preserves important features of both source and target distributions, while mitigating the specific noise in the small target data. Then, it trains a linear classifier on the mixed embeddings to effectively adapts the model to the target distribution without overfitting the small target data. Theoretically, we demonstrate the advantages of MixPro over previous methods. Our experiments, conducted across various model architectures on 8 datasets featuring different types of distribution shifts, reveal that MixPro can outperform baselines by as much as 7%, with only 2-4 target examples.

Sequential Models, Time series

Beyond Point Prediction: Score Matching-based Pseudolikelihood Estimation of Neural Marked Spatio-Temporal Point Process
Zichong Li, Qunzhi Xu, Zhenghao Xu, Yajun Mei, Tuo Zhao, Hongyuan Zha

Spatio-temporal point processes (STPPs) are potent mathematical tools for modeling and predicting events with both temporal and spatial features. Despite their versatility, most existing methods for learning STPPs either assume a restricted form of the spatio-temporal distribution, or suffer from inaccurate approximations of the intractable integral in the likelihood training objective. These issues typically arise from the normalization term of the probability density function. Moreover, existing works only provide point prediction for events without quantifying their uncertainty, such as confidence intervals for the event’s arrival time and confidence regions for the event’s location, which is crucial given the considerable randomness of the data. To tackle these challenges, we introduce SMASH: a Score MAtching-based pSeudolikeliHood estimator for learning marked STPPs. Specifically, our framework adopts a normalization-free objective by estimating the pseudolikelihood of marked STPPs through score-matching and predicts confidence intervals/regions for event time and location by generating samples through a score-based sampling algorithm. The superior performance of our proposed framework is demonstrated through extensive experiments on both point and confidence interval/region prediction of events.

Social Aspects

The Role of Learning Algorithms in Collective Action
Omri Ben-Dov, Jake Fawkes, Samira Samadi, Amartya Sanyal

Collective action in machine learning is the study of the control that a coordinated group can have over machine learning algorithms. While previous research has concentrated on assessing the impact of collectives against Bayes (sub-)optimal classifiers, this perspective is limited in that it does not account for the choice of learning algorithm. Since classifiers seldom behave like Bayes classifiers and are influenced by the choice of learning algorithms along with their inherent biases, in this work we initiate the study of how the choice of the learning algorithm plays a role in the success of a collective in practical settings. Specifically, we focus on distributionally robust optimization (DRO), popular for improving a worst group error, and on the ubiquitous stochastic gradient descent (SGD), due to its inductive bias for “simpler” functions. Our empirical results, supported by a theoretical foundation, show that the effective size and success of the collective are highly dependent on properties of the learning algorithm. This highlights the necessity of taking the learning algorithm into account when studying the impact of collective action in machine learning.

Time Series

CATS: Enhancing Multivariate Time Series Forecasting by Constructing Auxiliary Time Series as Exogenous Variables
Jiecheng Lu, Xu Han, Shihao Yang

For Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF), recent deep learning applications show that univariate models frequently outperform multivariate ones. To address the deficiency in multivariate models, we introduce a method to Construct Auxiliary Time Series (CATS) that functions like a 2D temporal-contextual attention mechanism, which generates Auxiliary Time Series (ATS) from Original Time Series (OTS) to effectively represent and incorporate inter-series relationships for forecasting. Key principles of ATS—continuity, sparsity, and variability—are identified and implemented through different modules. Even with a basic 2-layer MLP as the core predictor, CATS achieves state-of-the-art, significantly reducing complexity and parameters compared to previous multivariate models, marking it as an efficient and transferable MTSF solution.

Trustworthy Machine Learning

Compact Optimality Verification for Optimization Proxies
Wenbo Chen, Mathieu Tanneau, Pascal Van Hentenryck

Recent years have witnessed increasing interest in optimization proxies, i.e., machine learning models that approximate the input-output mapping of parametric optimization problems and return near-optimal feasible solutions. Following recent work by (Nellikkath & Chatzivasileiadis, 2021), this paper reconsiders the optimality verification problem for optimization proxies, i.e., the determination of the worst-case optimality gap over the instance distribution. The paper proposes a compact formulation for optimality verification and a gradient-based primal heuristic that brings significant computational benefits to the original formulation. The compact formulation is also more general and applies to non-convex optimization problems. The benefits of the compact formulation are demonstrated on large-scale DC Optimal Power Flow and knapsack problems.

Trustworthy Machine Learning

The WMDP Benchmark: Measuring and Reducing Malicious Use with Unlearning
Nathaniel Li, Alexander Pan, Anjali Gopal, Summer Yue, Daniel Berrios, Alice Gatti, Justin Li, Ann-Kathrin Dombrowski, Shashwat Goel, Gabriel Mukobi, Nathan Helm-Burger, Rassin Lababidi, Lennart Justen, Andrew Liu, Michael Chen, Isabelle Barrass, Xiaoyuan Zhu, Rishub Tamirisa, Bhrugu Bharathi, Ariel Herbert-Voss, Cort Breuer, Andy Zou, Mantas Mazeika, Zifan Wang, Palash Oswal, Weiran Lin, Adam Hunt, Justin Tienken-Harder, Kevin Shih, Kemper Talley, John Guan, Ian Steneker, David Campbell, Brad Jokubaitis, Steven Basart, Stephen Fitz, Ponnurangam Kumaraguru, Kallol Karmakar, Uday Tupakula, Vijay Varadharajan, Yan Shoshitaishvili, Jimmy Ba, Kevin Esvelt, Alexandr Wang, Dan Hendrycks

The White House Executive Order on Artificial Intelligence highlights the risks of large language models (LLMs) empowering malicious actors in developing biological, cyber, and chemical weapons. To measure these risks, government institutions and major AI labs are developing evaluations for hazardous capabilities in LLMs. However, current evaluations are private and restricted to a narrow range of malicious use scenarios, which limits further research into reducing malicious use. To fill these gaps, we release the Weapons of Mass Destruction Proxy (WMDP) benchmark, a dataset of 3,668 multiple-choice questions that serve as a proxy measurement of hazardous knowledge in biosecurity, cybersecurity, and chemical security. To guide progress on unlearning, we develop RMU, a state-of-the-art unlearning method based on controlling model representations. RMU reduces model performance on WMDP while maintaining general capabilities in areas such as biology and computer science, suggesting that unlearning may be a concrete path towards reducing malicious use from LLMs. We release our benchmark and code publicly at https://wmdp.ai.

Variational Inference

A Differentiable Partially Observable Generalized Linear Model with Forward-Backward Message Passing
Chengrui Li, Weihan Li, Yule Wang, Anqi Wu

The partially observable generalized linear model (POGLM) is a powerful tool for understanding neural connectivities under the assumption of existing hidden neurons. With spike trains only recorded from visible neurons, existing works use variational inference to learn POGLM meanwhile presenting the difficulty of learning this latent variable model. There are two main issues: (1) the sampled Poisson hidden spike count hinders the use of the pathwise gradient estimator in VI; and (2) the existing design of the variational model is neither expressive nor time-efficient, which further affects the performance. For (1), we propose a new differentiable POGLM, which enables the pathwise gradient estimator, better than the score function gradient estimator used in existing works. For (2), we propose the forward-backward message-passing sampling scheme for the variational model. Comprehensive experiments show that our differentiable POGLMs with our forward-backward message passing produce a better performance on one synthetic and two real-world datasets. Furthermore, our new method yields more interpretable parameters, underscoring its significance in neuroscience.

Other

CompeteAI: Understanding the Competition Dynamics of Large Language Model-based Agents
Qinlin Zhao, Jindong Wang, Yixuan Zhang, Yiqiao Jin, Kaijie Zhu, Hao Chen, Xing Xie

Large language models (LLMs) have been widely used as agents to complete different tasks, such as personal assistance or event planning. Although most of the work has focused on cooperation and collaboration between agents, little work explores *competition*, another important mechanism that promotes the development of society and economy. In this paper, we seek to examine the competition dynamics in LLM-based agents. We first propose a general framework for studying the competition between agents. Then, we implement a practical competitive environment using GPT-4 to simulate a virtual town with two types of agents, including restaurant agents and customer agents. Specifically, the restaurant agents compete with each other to attract more customers, where competition encourages them to transform, such as cultivating new operating strategies. Simulation experiments reveal several interesting findings at the micro and macro levels, which align well with existing market and sociological theories. We hope that the framework and environment can be a promising testbed to study the competition that fosters understanding of society. Code is available at: https://github.com/microsoft/competeai.

GLoRe: When, Where, and How to Improve LLM Reasoning via Global and Local Refinements
Alexander Havrilla, Sharath Chandra Raparthy, Christoforos Nalmpantis, Jane Dwivedi-Yu, Maksym Zhuravinskyi, Eric Hambro, Roberta Raileanu

State-of-the-art language models can exhibit reasoning refinement capabilities on math, science or coding tasks. However, recent work demonstrates that even the best models struggle to identify *when and where to refine* without access to external feedback. In this paper, we propose Stepwise ORMs (**SORMs**) which are trained, only on synthetic data, to approximate the expected future reward of the optimal policy or $V^{\star}$ as a form of Process-based reward modeling. Our experiments show that SORMs can more accurately detect incorrect reasoning steps compared to ORMs, thus enabling them to give precise step-level feedback to refinement models. We then train *global* refinement models, which take only the question and a draft solution as input and predict a corrected solution, and *local* refinement models which also take as input a critique indicating the location of the first reasoning error. We generate training data for both models synthetically by reusing data used to train the SORM. We find combining global and local refinements, using the ORM as a reranker, significantly outperforms either one individually, as well as a best of three sample baseline. With this strategy we can improve the accuracy of a LLaMA-2 13B model (already fine-tuned with RL) on GSM8K from 53% to 65% when greedily sampled.

Graph As Point Set
Xiyuan Wang, Pan Li, Muhan Zhang

Graph is a fundamental data structure to model interconnections between entities. Set, on the contrary, stores independent elements. To learn graph representations, current Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) primarily use message passing to encode the interconnections. In contrast, this paper introduces a novel graph-to-set conversion method that bijectively transforms interconnected nodes into a set of independent points and then uses a set encoder to learn the graph representation. This conversion method holds dual significance. Firstly, it enables using set encoders to learn from graphs, thereby significantly expanding the design space of GNNs. Secondly, for Transformer, a specific set encoder, we provide a novel and principled approach to inject graph information losslessly, different from all the heuristic structural/positional encoding methods adopted in previous graph transformers. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, we introduce Point Set Transformer (PST), a transformer architecture that accepts a point set converted from a graph as input. Theoretically, PST exhibits superior expressivity for both short-range substructure counting and long-range shortest path distance tasks compared to existing GNNs. Extensive experiments further validate PST’s outstanding real-world performance. Besides Transformer, we also devise a Deepset-based set encoder, which achieves performance comparable to representative GNNs, affirming the versatility of our graph-to-set method.

Policy Evaluation for Variance in Average Reward Reinforcement Learning
Shubhada Agrawal, Prashanth L.A., Siva Maguluri

We consider an average reward reinforcement learning (RL) problem and work with asymptotic variance as a risk measure to model safety-critical applications. We design a temporal-difference (TD) type algorithm tailored for policy evaluation in this context. Our algorithm is based on linear stochastic approximation of an equivalent formulation of the asymptotic variance in terms of the solution of the Poisson equation. We consider both the tabular and linear function approximation settings, and establish $\tilde {O}(1/k)$ finite time convergence rate, where $k$ is the number of steps of the algorithm. Our work paves the way for developing actor-critic style algorithms for variance-constrained RL. To the best of our knowledge, our result provides the first sequential estimator for asymptotic variance of a Markov chain with provable finite sample guarantees, which is of independent interest.

Symbolic Music Generation with Non-Differentiable Rule Guided Diffusion
Yujia Huang, Adishree Ghatare, Yuanzhe Liu, ziniu hu, Qinsheng Zhang, Chandramouli Shama Sastry, Siddharth Gururani, Sageev Oore, Yisong Yue

We study the problem of symbolic music generation (e.g., generating piano rolls), with a technical focus on non-differentiable rule guidance. Musical rules are often expressed in symbolic form on note characteristics, such as note density or chord progression, many of which are non-differentiable which pose a challenge when using them for guided diffusion. We propose Stochastic Control Guidance (SCG), a novel guidance method that only requires forward evaluation of rule functions that can work with pre-trained diffusion models in a plug-and-play way, thus achieving training-free guidance for non-differentiable rules for the first time. Additionally, we introduce a latent diffusion architecture for symbolic music generation with high time resolution, which can be composed with SCG in a plug-and-play fashion. Compared to standard strong baselines in symbolic music generation, this framework demonstrates marked advancements in music quality and rule-based controllability, outperforming current state-of-the-art generators in a variety of settings. For detailed demonstrations, code and model checkpoints, please visit our [project website](https://scg-rule-guided-music.github.io/).

Time-Series Forecasting for Out-of-Distribution Generalization Using Invariant Learning
Haoxin Liu, Harshavardhan Kamarthi, Lingkai Kong, Zhiyuan Zhao, Chao Zhang, B. Aditya Prakash

Time-series forecasting (TSF) finds broad applications in real-world scenarios. Due to the dynamic nature of time-series data, it is crucial for TSF models to preserve out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization abilities, as training and test sets represent historical and future data respectively. In this paper, we aim to alleviate the inherent OOD problem in TSF via invariant learning. We identify fundamental challenges of invariant learning for TSF. First, the target variables in TSF may not be sufficiently determined by the input due to unobserved core variables in TSF, breaking the fundamental assumption of invariant learning. Second, time-series datasets lack adequate environment labels, while existing environmental inference methods are not suitable for TSF. To address these challenges, we propose FOIL, a model-agnostic framework that endows time-series forecasting for out-of-distribution generalization via invariant learning. Specifically, FOIL employs a novel surrogate loss to mitigate the impact of unobserved variables. Further, FOIL implements joint optimization by alternately inferring environments effectively with a multi-head network while preserving the temporal adjacency structure and learning invariant representations across inferred environments for OOD generalized TSF. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed FOIL significantly and consistently improves the performance of various TSF models, achieving gains of up to 85%.

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