Welcome to the Subjective Uncertainty and Belief (SUB) Lab

What is uncertainty?

In colloquial terms, this question may seem simple. But psychologists, mathematicians, statisticians, and philosophers often answer it in drastically different ways. Understanding the nature of uncertainty, as well as our own uncertainty about the world, including how and when it can be reduced, and when and why it cannot, is one certain way to become better decision-makers.

What does the SUB lab do?

We link the psychology and the mathematics of uncertainty together. We utilize cutting edge methodology from psychometrics, quantitative psychology, and mathematical modeling to explain how people form and act on their subjective beliefs. In turn, we use that insight to identify what makes people good at handling uncertainty in their daily lives. In essence: what makes people good intuitive statisticans. We hope what we learn can help people become better decision-makers, benefiting both individuals and society at large.

What are the ongoing research questions and projects
in the SUB lab?