Publications

Preprints

(full drafts available upon request)

  • Z. She, T. Ayer, D. Montenara, “Can Big Data Cure Risk Selection in Healthcare Capitation Programs?,”
    • Finalist, MSOM Student Paper Competition, 2019
    • Finalist, INFORMS Public Sector OR Best paper award, 2018.
  • Z. She, T. Ayer, B. Gokpinar, “Reverse Cross Subsidization in Healthcare Capitation Programs: Evidence from Medicare Advantage”
  • J. Vlachy, T. Ayer, M. Ayvaci, S. Raghunathan, “The Business of Healthcare: Physician Integration in Bundled Payments,”
  • C. Zhang, T. Ayer, C. C. White, “Inventory Sharing for Perishable Products: Application to Platelets Inventory Management in Hospital Blood Banks”
  • C. Zhang, T. Ayer, C. C. White III , “2-Approximation Algorithms for Perishable Inventory Control When FIFO Is an Optimal Issuing Policy, ”
    • Finalist, 2015 INFORMS Nicholson Student Paper Competition
  • C. Caglayan, T. Ayer, D. Ekwueme, “Assessing Multi-Modality Screening Strategies for Women at High Risk of Developing Breast Cancer, “
  • Caglayan C., Liu Y., Pasupathy K., Nestler D., Ayer T., & Sir M.Y., “Physician Staffing in Emergency Rooms (ERs): Opening the Black-box of ER Care via a Multi-Class Multi-Stage Network”,

Published/Accepted Papers

Operations/Management Papers

  • A. Bonifonte, T. Ayer, B. Haaland (2021), “An Analytics Approach to Guide Randomized Controlled Trial Design for Hypertension Management, ” Management Science, accepted.
    • Accepted for presentation at NIPS
    • First prize winner, IISE Health Care Student Paper competition
  • Y. Kim, M. Ayvaci, S. Raghunathan, T. Ayer (2021), “When IT Creates Legal Vulnerability: Not Just Overutilization but Underprovisioning of Health Care Could be a Consequence,” MIS Quarterly, accepted.
    • Winner, INFORMS eBusiness Section Best Paper Competition, 2018.
  • C. Zhang, A. Atasu, T. Ayer, B. Toktay (2019), “Truthful Mechanisms for Medical Surplus Product Allocation, ” M&SOM, https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2018.0770
    • First prize winner, 2017 MSOM Student Paper Competition
    • First prize winner, 2017 INFORMS Doing Good with Good OR Student Paper Competition
    • First prize winner, 2017 POMS College of Sustainable Operations Best Student Paper Competition
  • T. Ayer, C. Zhang, A. Bonifonte, A. Spaulding, J. Chhatwal (2019), “Prioritizing Hepatitis C Treatment in U.S. Prisons ” Operations Research. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2018.1812 -Finalist, 2016 INFORMS Health Applications Society Best Paper Competition (Pierskalla Award)
  • T. Ayer, C. Zhang, C. Zeng, C. C. White III, V. R. Joseph (2018), ” Analysis and Improvement of Blood Collection Operations, ” M&SOM. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2017.0693
    • First prize winner, 2017 M&SOM Practice-Based Research Competition
    • First prize winner, 2015 INFORMS Doing Good with Good OR Competition
    • Selected as one of the four showcase presentations by the College of Healthcare Operations (CHOM) of the Production & Operations Management Society (POMS) annual Synapse Mini-Conference, 2017
    •  Video produced by the American Red Cross highlighting the realized impact
  • T. Ayer, M. Ayvaci, Z. Karaca, J. Vlachy (2018), “The Impact of Health Information Exchanges on Emergency Department Length of Stay ” Production and Operations Management (POM), https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.12953
    • Finalist, INFORMS Conference on Information Systems and Technology (CIST) Best Paper Competition, 2015
    • Finalist, Workshop on Health IT & Economics (WHITE) Best Paper Competition, 2015
  • M. Cevik, T. Ayer, O. Alagoz (2018), “Analysis of Mammography Screening Policies under Resource Constraints,” in press, Production and Operations Management (POM).
  • T. Ayer, C. Zhang, C. Zeng, C.C. White, V. Roshan Joseph, K. Lee, Z. Ozkaynak, M. Deck (2018), “American Red Cross Uses Analytics-based Methods to Improve Blood Collection Operations, ” INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics. 48(1), 24-34.- Finalist, 2017 INFORMS Franz Edelman Award
  • Q. Chen, T. Ayer, J. Chhatwal (2017), “Optimal M-switch Surveillance Policies for Liver Cancer in Hepatitis C-Infected Population, ” Operations Research, https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2017.1706
    • First Place, 2016 INFORMS Decision Analysis Society Student Paper Competition
    • Honorable mention, 2016 INFORMS Public Sector Operations Research (PSOR) Best Paper Award Competition
  • T. Ayer, O. Alagoz, N.K. Stout, E.S. Burnside (2015), “Heterogeneity in Women’s Adherence and Its Role on Optimal Breast Cancer Screening Policies, ” Management Science, 62 (5), 1339-1362.
    • First prize winner of the 2011 INFORMS Doing Good with Good OR Competition
  • T. Ayer (2015), ” Inverse Optimization for Assessing Emerging Technologies in Breast Cancer Screening” Annals of Operations Research, 230(1), 57-85.
  • T. Ayer, O. Alagoz, N.K. Stout (2012), “A POMDP Approach to Personalize Mammography Screening Decisions ,” Operations Research, 60, p. 1017-1018–21-winner of INFORMS 2009 Annual Meeting Best Poster Award.
    • Second prize in MSOM 2011 Student Paper Competition
    • Finalist in INFORMS 2011 Decision Analysis Society Student Paper Competition

Health Policy and Healthcare Analytics Papers

(partial list from over 50+)

  • A Toumi, H. Zhao, J. Chhatwal, BP Linas, T. Ayer (2021), “The Effect of NFL and NCAA Football Games on the Spread of COVID-19 in the United States: An Empirical Analysis”, accepted for publication in JAMA Network Open.
    •  Covered by Fox News, https://video.foxnews.com/v/6236722314001/
  • A Elhabr, S Merdan, T Ayer, A Prater, T Hanna, M Horny, R Duszak, D Hughes (2021), “Increasing Utilization of Emergency Department Neuroimaging from 2007 to 2017”, American Journal of Roentology, 10.2214/AJR.21.25864.
  • *S Merdan, K Subramanian, T Ayer, JV Weyenbergh (M.D.), A Chang (M.D.), JL Koff (M.D.), CR Flowers (M.D.) (2021), Gene expression profiling-based risk prediction and profiles of immune infiltration in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, Nature Blood Cancer Journal 11 (1), 1-12
  • J Julien, T Ayer, ED Bethea (M.D.), EB Tapper (M.D.), J Chhatwal (2020), “Projected prevalence and mortality associated with alcohol-related liver disease in the USA, 2019–40: a modelling study”, The Lancet Public Health, 5 (6), e316-e323
  • Q Chen, T Ayer, MG Adee, X Wang, F Kanwal (M.D.), J Chhatwal (2020), Assessment of Incidence of and Surveillance Burden for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Among Patients With Hepatitis C in the Era of Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents, JAMA Network Open, 3 (11), e2021173-e2021173
  • AB Fujimoto, T Ayer, AB Caughey (M.D.), P Keskinocak (2020), “A comparison of first trimester prenatal screening strategies for Down Syndrome with maternal age and preferences considerations”, Prenatal Diagnosis, 40 (12), 1553-1562.
  • Z She, AH Gaglioti (M.D.), P Baltrus, C Li, M Moore, L Immergluck, A Rao, T Ayer (2020), “Primary Care Comprehensiveness and Care Coordination in Robust Specialist Networks Results in Lower Emergency Department Utilization: A Network Analysis of Medicaid Physician Networks”, Journal of Primary Care & Community Health, 11, 1-9.
  • C Caglayan, T Ayer, JS Goldstein, A Rai, C Flowers (2019), “Assessing the Effectiveness of Treatment Sequences for Older High-Risk Follicular Lymphoma Patients with a Multi-state Model, ” Cancer, doi: 10.1002/cncr.31981 [Epub ahead of print].
  • C. Caglayan, H. Terawaki, Q. Chen, A Rai, T. Ayer, CR. Flowers (2018) , “Microsimulation Modeling in Oncology, ” JCO Clinical Cancer Informatics , 2,1-11.
  • J. Yan, T. Ayer, P. Keskinocak, A. Caughey (2017), “Age-based Differences in the Predictive Accuracy of a One-Size-Fits-All Risk-Cutoff Value in Prenatal Integrated Screening for Down Syndrome,” in press, Prenatal Diagnosis.– First prize winner, 2017 the Society for Health Systems graduate student paper competition
  • R. Aggarwal, Q. Chen, A. Goel , N. Seguy , R. Pendse , T. Ayer, J. Chhatwal (2017), “Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis C Treatment using Generic Direct-Acting Antivirals Available in India, ” PLoS One, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0176503 [Epub ahead of print].
  • H. Terawaki, C. Caglayan, Q. Chen, T. Ayer, C. Flowers (2017), ” “Microsimulation Modeling in Oncology”, “in press, Journal of Clinical Oncology (JCO) Clinical Cancer Informatics.
  • AR Ruiz, J Vlachy, JW Lee , EJ Gilmore , T Ayer, et al. (2017), ” Association of Periodic and Rhythmic Electroencephalographic Patterns With Seizures in Critically Ill Patients, ” JAMA Neurology, 74(2), 181-188.
  • M. Capan, A. Khojandi, B. Denton, KD Williams, T. Ayer, et al. (2017), ” From Data to Improved Decisions: Operations Research in Healthcare Delivery, ” Medical Decision Making, doi: 10.1177/0272989X17705636 [Epub ahead of print].
  • Q. Chen, T. Ayer, J. Chhatwal (2016), “Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models: A Probabilistic Approach,” Medical Decision Making, doi: 0272989X16670605 [Epub ahead of print].
  • Q. Chen, N. Jain, T. Ayer, W.G. Wierda, C. R. Flowers, S. O’Brien, M. Keating, H. M. Kantarjian, J.Chhatwal (2016), “Economic Burden of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia in the Era of Oral Targeted Therapies in the United States,” Journal of Clincial Oncology (JCO),35(2), 166-174.- This paper was covered by the Economic Times and Cancer Network
  • DA Goldstein, Q. Chen, T. Ayer, D. Howard, J. Lipscomb, SS Ramalingam , FR Khuri, CR Flowers (2015), “Necitumumab in Metastatic Squamous Lung Cancer: Establishing a Value-Based Cost , ” JAMA Oncology., 1(9), 1293-1300.- WSJ Coverage I: Lilly’s Lung-Cancer Drug Portrazza to Cost $11,430 a Month- WSJ Coverage II: Experimental Lilly Lung-Cancer Drug Stirs Price Debate
    • Washington Post Coverage: Cancer drugs arent just really expensive; they are a bad value
  • A. Rodriguez-Ruiz, J. Vlachy, JW Lee, EJ Gilmore, T Ayer, H Arif Haider, N Gaspard, J.A. Ehrenberg, B. Tolchin, T. Fantaneanu, A. Fernandez, LJ Hirsch, S. LaRoche (2016), “Periodic and Rhythmic EEG Patterns in the Critically Ill: Features Associated with Seizures, ” in press, JAMA Neurology.
  • T. He, K. Li, M.S. Roberts, A. C. Spaulding, T. Ayer, J. J. Grefenstette, J. Chhatwal (2015), “Prevention of Hepatitis C By Screening and Treatment in United States Prisons, “Annals of Internal Medicine, 164(2), 84-92.- NPR Coverage: Treating Prisoners With Hepatitis C May Be Worth The Hefty Price
    • US News Coverage: Screening Inmates for Hepatitis C Benefits General Community
  • G. Rust, S. Zhang,, Z. Yu, L. Caplan, S. Jain, T. Ayer, L. McRoy, R.S. Levine (2015), ” Counties Eliminating Racial Disparities in Colorectal Cancer Mortality” Cancer, 122(11), 1735-1748.
  • DA Goldstein, BB Ahmad, Q. Chen, T. Ayer, D. Howard, J. Lipscomb, B El-Rayes, CR Flowers (2015), ” Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Regorafenib for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer” Journal of Clinical Oncology (JCO), 33(32), 3727-3732.
  • J. Yan, T. Ayer, P. Keskinocak, A. Caughey (2015), ” Preference-Sensitive Risk Cutoff Values for Prenatal Integrated Screening Test for Down Syndrome” Prenatal Diagnosis, 35(7), 645-51.
  • A. Bonifonte, T. Ayer, E. Veledar, A. Clarke, P. Wilson (2015), “Antecedent Blood Pressure as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Diseases” Journal of the American Society of Hypertension, 9(9), 690-696.
  • DA Goldstein, Q. Chen, T. Ayer, D. Howard, J. Lipscomb, RD Harvey, B El-Rayes, CR Flowers (2015), ” First and Second line bevacizumab in addition to chemotherapy for metastatic colorectal cancer: A US based cost-effectiveness analysis” Journal of Clinical Oncology (JCO), 33(10), 1112-8
  • Q. Chen, T. Ayer, AC Rose, LJ Nastoupil, CR Flowers (2014), ” Comparing the Cost Effectiveness of Rituximab Maintenance and Radio-immunotherapy Consolidation Therapy Following First-line Chemo-Immunochemotherapies for Follicular Lymphoma” Value in Health, 18(2), 189-97.