2023 Admission Predictions…and Hopes

Last week I had the opportunity to answer this prompt in a Higher Ed Dive article, along with a few friends and colleagues around the country: In 150-200 words, what is one admissions trend you expect to see in 2023?  

Here was my take: 

In the year ahead, due to the emergence and prevalence of artificial intelligence software such as ChatGPT, I expect more colleges to either drop their admission essay altogether or expand the format through which students can convey their voice and demonstrate their ability to articulate their opinions and interest. 

This could take the form of proctored writing samples, graded essays from their high school, a rise in the use of unscripted interviews, or various mediums and platforms for students and their supporters to submit information, i.e. voice recorded recommendations or video elevator pitches. 

Removing barriers to apply and simplifying the application process in general will be particularly important due to the pending Supreme Court case on affirmative action, and the desire of colleges and universities to preserve a diverse applicant pool. To that end, expect more colleges to make announcements ending legacy preferences and launching transfer pathway programs geared toward historically underrepresented students. 

The first half of my response (AI, essays, broader submission mediums) elicited a number of emails and social media messages which fell into one of two camps: A: You are wrong.  B: I hope you are wrong. The good news for those of you who disagree is that you don’t have to look far back on this very blog to see my many errant prognostications.  

Normally, I don’t mind being wrong, but in this case I hope I’m not. Here’s why- and here’s what I hope we will see. 

Ask most admission counselors what they’re looking for in an application essay and you will get some version of “we just want to hear the student’s voice.” Well, let’s solve for that? The truth is that many of these essays are already overly sanitized or professionally tailored/ tampered with already. I hope the Common Application and Coalition Application will modernize their platforms and integrate technology that allows us to more directly hear and/or see students, and the adults that support them.  

Allowing for voice recorded responses, or short video clips, is the student’s voice. Yes, I understand this would mean parameters and controls, so another cottage industry does not emerge but stick with me for a moment. Changing the medium of delivery to audio/video – or at least providing it as an option- gives a much better sense of how a student would engage in the classroom or on campus than the essay. Importantly, if these are limited to a minute or so, it does not add time to review for colleges- and could be a welcome reprieve for the tired eyes of admission readers. (Companies like Initial View are offering this for students).  

Same for school counselors or teachers. While they could still send written recommendations, if that was their preference (and use AI at will), the truth is most American students attend public schools where counselor: student ratios are an utter travesty at several hundred to one. My hope is we can make it easier for these folks by allowing them to advocate for their students in mediums they are comfortable with in 2023, i.e., voice/video. I don’t want a student’s boss from Subway having to login and submit a rec letter, but I think there would be value in hearing them say, “she’s the only person outside of my family who I allow to have the keys to the store.” 

Several folks who messaged me “could not see colleges doing away with the essay.” Maybe you are right. Maybe higher ed really moves that slowly and the essays will persist in current form a good bit longer. But AI is here, and students will be using it during their K12 and college admission experience. As a result, I agree with the notion that ChatGPT and others will move students more to editing mode than author mode. Ultimately, if a student wants to use AI to create their prompt responses, that’s their choice.  

With that said, while my prediction is some schools will drop the conventional admission essay altogether, my hope Common Application and Coalition Application will at least install software that screens for AI use and displays that result to students prior to submission. This will give students a chance to decide if they want to edit further or proceed, especially since colleges maintaining essays could very well run similar scans on their side post-submission.  

My biggest hope is the Supreme Court will not overturn decades of national precedent and will continue to allow colleges to responsibly use race as “one of many factors” to recruit students, make admission decisions, award scholarships, and more. (More on why providing more data not less is important in holistic review from my Fisher vs. Texas blog).

However, my prediction is SCOTUS will make affirmative action illegal and we will see a downturn in underrepresented undergradaute student enrollments, particularly at state flagships and selective privates- the American higher education experience will be further devalued as a result. And even with the reduced percentages of black and brown students on many college campuses, we won’t see a reduction in the number of entitled, privileged people complaining about not getting into Stanvard each April.   

Agree, disagree, forward, or delete—I appreciate you reading. An exchange with people from various backgrounds showing up to listen, respect, and learn from one another is how we add value and make progress…. I just hope the Supreme Court agrees.  

Juniors, College Admission is a Stereogram

On Saturday night I was at a party. In these settings, when I am talking to people I don’t know very well, I find they generally broach a few central topics with me- sports/running, my kids/their school, and college/college admission- not always in that order.  

While it may surprise you based on this blog or our podcast, my goal is always to move as quickly away from the college admission discussion as possible, especially when people start breaking out their daughter’s transcript. I’m still working on how to smoothly segueway to different subjects, and admittedly, some are smoother than others. To this point, I’ve only had to resort to my nuclear options (pretend like my phone is ringing or fake a coughing fit) twice.  

Saturday night I pulled an amazing transition that took us from a spiraling commentary on standardized test scores to reminiscing about the prevalence of “stereogram” posters in college dorm rooms in the 90s. For those of you born after I graduated college, a stereogram is an image that gives a three-dimensional representation of another object. While I do not have the sales data for my time at UNC, I’d put stereogram posters just below Air Jordan, but decidedly ahead of album covers or motivational quotes on landscapes.  

The trick to seeing the hidden 3D objects is not to focus on the poster itself, but instead to allow your eyes to see “into” the colors and let the real image take shape. In some cases, you need to close your eyes and reset, change positions, or step away momentarily to see beyond what your eyes are naturally trained to recognize. Try a few for yourself here. 

Admission as Stereogram 

January and February are extremely common times for high schools to host programs for juniors.  “College Kick Off,” “Starting the College Conversation,” and “Admission 101” are a few of the panel titles I’ve seen recently. Often, the moderator will ask, “What is one thing you would like to leave folks with before we conclude?” Over the years, I’ve had a variety of responses, but one of the most important is- focus on what really matters to you, rather than being distracted by many of the initial or obvious components of the college admission search. Like a stereogram, look into what you see. And more importantly, look beyond what you see.  

Applications are not the REAL picture. Many colleges around the country had final deadlines in early January. Invariably, they will produce a myriad of press releases, infographics, and social media posts about “record numbers” of applications or comparisons to prior years; journalists write articles about application increases and decreases by sector or geographic region; educational companies create tables to compare app numbers across universities; and university boards will either tout or bemoan this specific metric. As a student considering colleges, I’m encouraging you not to focus on application numbers- and definitely not to use this as a comparative tool between schools.   

Why? Because application counts are not apples: apples. Many people will equate the number of applications a school receives as some barometer for popularity or value. The truth is colleges often count and publicize their total applications even if they are not “actionable.” As an example, this year Georgia Tech received over 52,000 applications. That is a lot. And it’s a lot more than last year or five years ago. It’s also more than some schools and less than others (I know. You are here for the mind-blowing data). Georgia Tech, however, at the direction of our state system, requires test scores. Currently, 4500 of our applicants have not submitted a test score. Still, when asked about app totals we will report over 52,000 received, because some portion of that 4500 will ultimately become “complete.” Other schools have multiple steps and stages in their application process. If you only complete Part One of four, the odds are they are counting you in their reports, even though you were not ultimately a viable candidate for admission.  

Admit rates are blurry. I get it. They seem straightforward. You see an admit rate in a column on some online table or presentation and think, “Got it.” Nope. See, that’s exactly how people felt back in the day walking into college dorm rooms. “Nice poster, man. I like all the random colors and swirling lines.”  

Look closer. Step away if you need to. Admit rates vary within the same institution. Where you are applying from, when you are applying, and sometimes what you are applying to study all enhance the swirl and blur of the stereogram. For instance, if you are applying to a school with Early Decision, it’s important to ask questions and do your homework to determine any gaps or variance between applying under that plan vs. Early Action or Regular Decision or some other acronym, date, or plan they may offer. If you are applying to a public school, ask about admit rates for students from in-state or out-of-state, or even students from “my state” or region of the country.  

For far too long colleges have boasted about (and people have assigned disproportionate value to) the number of students a school turns away. My hope is you will be more interested in determining the type of people who are actually on campus, rather than who or how many did not end up there. 

The Real Image 

Rankings, number of benches on campus, student: squirrel/deer ratio…. I could list many other numbers that people tout or hold up as signs of quality or importance. As this new year begins, I am hopeful you will treat your college admission experience like a stereogram. Numbers, percentages, and many of the other statistics are where people too often start and focus. I’m not saying you should completely ignore all admission data, but beginning by quantifying, especially now knowing how jacked up some of this data really is, can prevent you from seeing all of your choices and options. And they often create a blurry, swirling, initial picture that distracts you from focusing on the true image—YOU.  

As a junior, start by asking yourself questions that have nothing to do with numbers. Why do I want to go to college? What type of people bring out my best? What environments bring out my best as a person and a learner? What are my short- and long-term goals? If you will invest your time honestly considering what you really care about and what you want; if you will periodically step back, close your eyes, and re-focus, then you’ll find plenty of colleges that align with your answers. College admission is a stereogram– have the patience and perspective to allow it to emerge and take shape like a 3D image.