Listen to “Episode 11: What I Do & Do Not Know – Rick Clark” on Spreaker.
Each of the last seven Wednesdays at 2:45 p.m., we’ve held a full-staff meeting. While smaller teams are also meeting at other points, this is our weekly chance to all be “together.” As our time sheltering in place has lengthened, and reports and articles of other universities around the country issuing furloughs or discussing re-entry timelines proliferate, I’ve found it increasingly important to begin each meeting by laying out what I do and do not know. The latter is way longer most weeks.
When it comes to how COVID-19 will impact our work in the months ahead, however, the story is far more balanced.
What I DON’T know
In April and early May, admission deans and directors around the country get a lot of questions from their faculty, staff, alumni, and administrators such as, “How are the numbers looking?” or “Are we on target for next year?” Normally thousands of visitors are touring campus, neighbors’ or friends’ kids are weighing college options, and they’re seeing social media posts and online articles about high school seniors graduating and heading off to various colleges.
In most years by this point I have a great sense of how August will look. In fact, we often host a Cinco De Mayo gathering for our campus partners to thank them for their assistance and tell them about the incoming class in terms of size, demographics, geographic and curricular make-up, academic quality, along with a few interesting anecdotes from students’ essays.
This year is different. This year there are many uncertainties about what the months ahead hold, and the only honest answer to “How are the numbers looking?” or “Are we on target for next year?” is simply “I do not know.” Granted, no admission dean is that succinct, so those four words are quickly followed by some combination of “ifs,” “assumings,” or “hopefullys” in the subsequent sentences.
Here are a few of the key predictive metrics enrollment managers and their data gurus typically watch in late spring:
- comparisons with historical trends.
- the number of pending offers of admission.
- the number of students canceling their applications to go elsewhere.
- the number of students who attended a campus visit or information session.
- open rates on emails and interactions online or via phone with staff.
- the number of students registered for orientation and applying for housing.
- the number of students who completed all financial aid documents and viewed their aid package online.
These indicators, in combination with a variety of other factors, help determine the number of waitlist offers to make, as well as how many deposited students will melt (or choose to go elsewhere) over the summer.
The basic math of college admission:
Admitted students/ Total applications = Admit rate
Deposited students/ Admitted students = Yield rate
100- (Enrolled students/ Deposited students) = Melt rate
Right now there are simply too many unknowns to accurately predict the final class size. So, “how are the numbers looking?” and “Are we on target for next year?”
Great questions. Any chance you could help me answer these? 
- Is the economy going to rebound, and to what extent?
- Will US embassies and consulates again be issuing student visas so international students can study in America in the fall?
- Will in-person instruction be permitted and/or advisable from a public health standpoint?
- How open will travel be around the United States?
- How comfortable will families be sending their kids 10s, 100s, or 1,000s of miles away from home?
- How many students will opt for a deferment term or gap year?
Other things I’ve recently learned I don’t know:
- How to braid hair.
- “New math.”
- How to separate plastic vegetable bags at the grocery store while wearing gloves and a mask.
- The neighbors directly across the street.
I wish I had more answers for my own staff, administration, and family. I wish I could tell my friend whose daughter is supposed to leave for college in August whether that university will be on campus for in-person instruction. The truth, however, is I do not know.
What I DO know
When we discuss and attempt to predict the “further future” of how juniors will be evaluated in the admission process in the year ahead, I feel a lot more confident.
Q: How will you evaluate GPA and grades when students may only have pass/fail grades or partial term grading for the spring semester?
A: We will do what we always have done: look at the high school they attend, what courses they had access to (course availability), which courses they took (course selection, e.g. academic rigor), and how they did in those classes (course performance, e.g. GPA). We will not look at all high schools uniformly, but rather take the time to understand context, including how the Covid-19 pandemic impacted that community, school, and student.
We’ll also review grade trends. In other words, how did they do in 9th, 10th, and the first part of 11th grade, and perhaps also ask for a mid-term report in the senior year, especially for applicants in EA/ED rounds. Lastly, we will use historical information from classes from previous years to see how similar students from that high school have fared on our campus. No students from that high school previously? Not a problem. In fact, we are always excited to receive apps from schools we’ve not in the past. Again, we will look comprehensively at all of the factors outlined above.
Q: How are you going to evaluate extra-curricular involvement since students had seasons, performances, or elections canceled in the junior spring?
A: Holistically, and with benefit of the doubt. I know everyone says how important the junior year is and I’m not taking away from that. But again, we know what you had planned. We know what you already participated in and what you have accomplished. We’ll do what we do every year—we’ll make assumptions and inferences, which always (and I use that word intentionally) lean toward benefiting you. Here is how that will sound in admission committee: “She was on the soccer team but they did not get to play most of the season. She also plays club soccer and summer tournaments and camps were canceled. Looks like she’s listing her intent to play again in her senior year.” Translation: They’re reviewing your file as if all of that actually happened. Always, to your benefit.
Q: What about testing if administrations continue to be canceled? How will colleges review tests administered at home or those of a different format/length?
A: The test score optional movement gains momentum every day. In recent weeks, you’ve seen many public and private colleges around the country introduce either pilot plans for the year ahead or permanent policies within admission review that do not require standardized testing. A full list of nearly 1,200 colleges and universities can be found here. I highly recommend this piece in the Chronicle of Higher Education from my colleague Jon Boeckenstadt from Oregon State University, a long-time champion of test-optional admission policies. 
For those colleges who continue to require standardized testing they will need to be very clear about their policies and considerations surrounding testing prior to or after Spring 2020. As a prospective student, you will have to wait and watch this summer for indications from the colleges you are considering.
If you already have a test score that falls into a college’s middle 50% range (whether they are test score optional or not), I recommend sending those as an indicator of interest. In addition to registering for one of their information sessions or accessing their virtual tours, this helps them identify and communicate with you as a student who is serious about applying and potentially enrolling.
Other things I know:
- I REALLY need a haircut.
- Colleges need students now more than ever.
- Hybrid models, including synchronous and asynchronous, are being developed. This will allow some schools to grow their enrollment and create more access/seats.
- While highlights and re-runs of games are entertaining initially, they only make you long for live sports to return.
- I appreciate you reading and hope you have a great week. Don’t miss this opportunity at home to tell the people in your house how much you love them and appreciate them.
- Grace, forgiveness, patience, benefit of the doubt, and love need to rule the day during this time (and by this time, I mean ALWAYS).
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Then I noticed it. In less than 90 seconds, he had already scratched his head twice. My Spidey senses (and frankly my own scalp) were tingling.