Predicting Yield in 2021: Everyone Shorts It 

Listen to “Predicting Yield in 2021 – Rick Clark” on Spreaker.

“$10 says he shorts it.” Just one of the countless quotable lines in the must watch classic, Oceans 11. 

After assembling the perfect crew, stealing a massive explosive device, falsifying identities, and recreating identical vaults, the heist of three Las Vegas casinos comes down to the ability of Yen (Shaobo Qin) to pull off a 10-foot backflip and land squarely on top of a cabinet inside a heavily protected vault that contains $160 million

As the other members of Danny Oceans’ team watch from their secure location, Frank (Bernie Mac), says, “$10 says he shorts it.” While several of the crew jumped in to not only take the bet but raise the stakes during the simulated heist in their workshop, when it comes down to the real thing, they quickly and nervously reply, “No bet.”  

If he misses, alarms will sound, guards will show up, and disaster is imminent. After all the planning, pouring over details, considering scenarios, deliberating, discussing, and ad nauseum scrutiny and analysis, success ultimately hinges on a single leap. Welcome to college admission in 2021! 

Right now, admission and enrollment leaders around the country are obsessing over the models they developed to predict student “yield” behavior. They are looking back at pre-pandemic information and weighing that against 2020, in addition to praying more, sleeping less, and stretching out to make the “leap.   

Will students be willing to travel as far from home given the uncertainty of fall course delivery being in person? 

Will international students be able to physically get to the U.S., whether as a result of visa issuance or travel restrictions? 

Will test optional admits yield differently than their historical model predicts? 

How will females from the northeast admitted to the sciences yield? 

Some of the colleges that have garnered headlines in recent months for shattering application records are perhaps the most disconcerted. They know that while Common App data indicates the number of applications submitted increased by 500,000+, unique applicants (students using the platform) only increased by 80,000. While that’s not nothing, it’s also important to note that 40 new schools began accepting the Common App this year, including several big public schools that historically receive tens of thousands of applications. Translation: the average number of applications students submitted is what really increased. So, while app counts may please the Board of Trustees in the winter, what really matters is the fall census.   

And that leads us to yield. What do the next few months hold on converting students? Obviously, the easy/classic admission answer is, “it depends.” Granted, that is true, but I’m not going to do you like that. At the risk of being wrong or even “right-ish, my prediction is everyone shorts it… just at different times and for different reasons.  

At the more selective colleges (especially that incredibly small number meeting 100% of need without loans): Yield will likely remain relatively consistent. However, since those are also colleges counting beds and heads to a very precise numberand they are also the ones who saw larger gap year requests, you should count on them intentionally coming in short of their class target and working their waitlist extensively.  

Applications up, raw number of admits flat or negligibly up, sizeable raw number added to the waitlist. When you have more money in your endowment than there is in the vault, the game is to slowly walk over and climb up, rather than risk flipping over (or out as the case may be)If that’s too much of a mixed metaphor it goes like this: more students waitlisted but likely a higher percentage of the class filled from it over a longer period of timei.e., activity beginning pre-May 1 and continuing deep into the summer.  

At colleges and universities (primarily national publics) announcing an increase in their class sizeIf you have applied to a school in this category, it will be interesting to watch how those increases factor into admit and yield rates.  

My prediction is these schools see flat or slightly higher in-state yield, and slightly lower non-resident/ international yield, due again to financial, health, and mobility impacts of the pandemic. I anticipate these schools will also build a bigger waitlist than last year, in case they misjudge the vault flip. 

Here’s how it looks at Tech: We received about 4,400 more applications than last year. However, we are also increasing our class size by 150. Last year’s yield was nearly 70% for in-state and closer to 30% for non-Georgia. So, our model calls for admitting nearly 1,000 more students through EA, RD, and waitlist. Ultimately, due to the 11% app increase, our admit rate would move +/- >1%. Told you—there  is nuance in the numbers. 

At less selective colleges (private and public): I expect many/most to miss their class goal by their deposit deadline, be that May 1 or June 1.  Since higher education is an ecosystem, the dominos will start to fall as selective schools go to their waitlists, which will create even more problems for colleges already “hearing alarm bells in the vault.” Last year undergraduate enrollment was down 4% with first-year enrollment down double-digits. Expect to see a big swath of higher ed again come in short of their enrollment goals this fall for both new and returning students.   

In rare cases: yield could increase unexpectedly, and in combination with more admits, they could end up like Yen in Ocean’s 11 sliding over the cabinet. However, higher anticipated summer melt should keep them off the vault floor, so I don’t foresee any/many stories like those out of Virginia Tech in 2019.  

Bottom line 

1- If you applied to a handful of selective colleges, don’t be surprised if you get waitlisted this year. If you are so angry that you want to write them off, don’t accept your spot on the waitlist. If you can put your ego aside and temper expectations (since hundreds, or possibly thousands of other kids are also on the waitlist), deposit elsewhere and sit tight. Don’t expect to come off the waitlist, and don’t expect much financial aid if you do. In some cases, you will be pleasantly surprised on one or both counts. But set your expectations based on fiscal reality and statistics.  

2- When you get accepted (or if you already have been) ask your questions. Colleges need students, now more than ever. Yield is what it’s all about and you are precious to the places that offered you a spot. Want to know about a deposit extension? Gap year policies? Financial aid reconsideration? Fall plans for course delivery? It’s all on the table, so ASK YOUR QUESTIONS! 

3–  I could add something else here for symmetry but that’s really all I’ve got. Hang in there. Be safe, wear a mask, take care of the folks around you, and as always, Hug your mama! 

 

Waiting Well in Uncertainty

This week we welcome Senior Admission Counselor Samantha Rose-Sinclair to the blog. Welcome back, Sammy!

Listen to “Waiting Well For Decisions-Sammy Rose-Sinclair” on Spreaker.

If you applied to colleges for regular decision, it’s been a few long weeks now that you’ve been waiting on your decision. For the many Early Action applicants deferred from schools this year, it’s been even longer—we’re talking months. Long enough to have watched The Office 26 times back to back.

Still waiting…

While you’re suspended in the discomfort of uncertainty for so long, it’s easy to fixate, to try and find insights that fill in the gaps of what you don’t know. First-year profiles and stats? “How I Got In” YouTube videos? Common Data Sets? Checked them. A thousand times. You may find yourself hunting for signs, trying to decipher anything, anything, as an indicator of what’s to come. An email from Financial Aid? A new button on the admission portal? That could mean something, right? And then there’s daydreaming about life after the admission decision, and how much better things will be.

This is not me passing judgment. This is me speaking from experience. Let me level with you for a moment:

While I was halfway across the country waiting on a potential job offer from Georgia Tech, I jumped into a bottomless pit of internet tabs and YouTube videos about Atlanta and Georgia Tech every night. Every. Night. While I was waiting to hear if my offer was accepted on my home, I scrolled through the pictures on Zillow over… and over… and over. Before long, I had mapped out every grocery store, restaurant, and retail store within a 5-mile radius.

To bring us back a little bit closer to home, I applied to graduate school two summers ago. Slightly different than undergraduate admission, but the application bones were the same: transcripts, test scores, essays, recommendations, the whole deal. I obsessed. I tried to find all I could about how likely I was to get admitted. (You know when you’ve hit the third page of Google results you’re in way too deep.) In my interview, the recruiter quite literally told me I was going to be admitted a few weeks later, and I STILL kept at it.

Feel familiar? Truly, my hope for you is to be better than me. Here’s what I’ve learned:

Getting excited about a new adventure is a good thing.

Researching and virtually visiting schools so that you’re well prepared to make a decision in a few months is a good thing. But doing all the things I just described above? That doesn’t feel good. If you stop to think about how you feel when you’re doing these things, you’ll likely agree.

My hope for you is that you can recognize that moment, and act on it. Reclaim your time, and see this period of time between submitting applications and making a college decision as an opportunity. There are people you care about and things you can do in your last year of high school that deserve your attention now, so much more than the college admission fixation. I promise you, investing your energy in them will feel a million times better.

Trying to peg your likelihood of admission with “chance-me’s,” or thinking up various calculations of where you fall/versus application numbers/versus admit rates, can only provide a fleeting and false sense of certainty where there isn’t any.

It won’t help. I understand the instinct to want to know the unknown. Unfortunately, while you’re waiting for an admission decision, I’ve learned there’s not much you can research that will truly help you “know.”

Here’s a bit of tough love for you:

  • “How I Got In” videos provide singular anecdotal evidence of an admission decision, without insight on what actually lead to that decision in application review. Yet, they’re often presented as a guide or formula to admission, which is terribly misleading. Don’t put any stock into them.
  • “Chance me’s” lack context of the high school, the full student experience, application, academic history, or the applicant pool—all things that factor into admission review.
  • First-year profiles, stats, and data sets, though they’re more data driven, are a guideline of historical numbers. They are not an absolute guarantee of admission results, especially in selective, holistic environments where the important qualitative elements of a class are difficult to summarize. Last year’s first-year profiles also are missing another critical factor: for the most part, those students applied pre-Covid-19. The context of their class profile is completely different than yours.

Boom. There’s the tough love. I don’t want to leave you feeling defeated and without a compass.  However, I believe it’s helpful to realize the compass wasn’t reliable in the first place.

Here’s the good news: wait well, and know that certainty is coming. You’ve worked hard! You’ve done your part to submit your application. The ball will be back in your court soon, but for right now, you’re not going to be in the room while your application is being read.

With all else that you have on your plate, refocus your time and energy on controlling what you can control. Take time for yourself. Take time for your friends. Hug your mama.

A college admission decision does not define you—it is not a judgement of your character, abilities, or a predictor of future success.

Let’s add on to that: a college in and of itself will not define you either. So, if you feel stuck, fixated on daydreaming about how great life will be at this one college if you could just get admitted… rethink that perspective. Don’t give any one school that kind of weight—put that power back in yourself. You’ll explore new opportunities, invest in your own personal development, challenge yourself, and create new relationships in the coming years. That’s not dependent on one college—that’s all you.

The truth is, you will be great no matter where you go, as long as you take that excitement with you, and really show up wherever you end up this fall.

My hope is that you can take the pressure off of any given admission decision in the coming months, and can get excited for the bigger picture. Trust us, it works out.

On behalf of college admission officers everywhere, thank you for waiting with us, and allowing us the opportunity and time to dive into your accomplishments. We’re in the home stretch now!

Sammy Rose-Sinclair has worked in college admission for five years. She moved to Atlanta and joined Georgia Tech three years ago as a senior admission counselor on the first-year admission team. She uses that same love of engaging with students, families, and counselors to interact with the Tech Admission community as the coordinator of our social media channels (@gtadmission).

Nuance in the Numbers

Listen to “Nuance in the Numbers (Are All Admit Rates Created Equal?) – Rick Clark” on Spreaker.

One of my 2021 resolutions is to run, ride, hike, walk, or swim over 2021 miles this year. This means I am tracking everything, because to meet that goal it will require averaging about 5.5 miles a day. In order to do this, I use a Garmin watch, which I have connected to the Strava app.  

Recently, I’ve been running with a friend once a week. He also uses Strava, but instead of using a watch, he runs with his cell phone and records directly into the app.   

Here is a run we did a few weeks ago. 

A few things to note. Same day/same route, but the pace and distance are different. If someone was looking at our two logs, they would assume he not only dusted me, but also decided to put in an extra half mile just to rub it in.  I’m not ok with that, and you should not be either. Here’s why.

Admission Application 

When it comes to college admission this kind of thing happens all of the time. People latch on to surface level numbers and assign them undue merit without really examining their credence. They assume they can compare apples to apples.  Rankings are a good example, which I’ve covered extensively.  Another place this commonly occurs is with application numbers and acceptance rates. In recent weeks, there have been a ridiculous number of articles talking about EA/ED application volume and corresponding admit rates. Notice the same schools keep coming up in those pieces, so while they draw plenty of press, they only comprise about 1%-2% of American higher education, i.e. not representative of the accurate/bigger story.   

So just to level-set, acceptance rate, aka. admit rate= number of students admitted divided by number of applicants. Example: 3500 admits/ 10,000 apps = 35% admit rate. Here is where we run into a Stravaesque situation (see what I did there?).  

Problem 1: Colleges do not count applications the same way. Here’s the thing. Some schools separate parts of their application. A student may complete the biographical information, activities, essay, etc., but never sends transcripts or test scores. One college counts that app, and another does not because it is not complete or actionable. I remember applying to a college as a high school senior that had a seven-part application. In hindsight, I see that was likely a yield strategy. As a student it just felt burdensome and annoying. I only got to the fourth part (but I’m sure they counted my application)There are other derivations and variations in counting apps, but we won’t enumerate them all. Suffice it to say, counting apps is not uniform.  

Problem 2: Colleges do not count admits the same way (for those scoring at home that means neither the numerator nor the denominator is apples: apples or apples/apples. So how do you like them apples? The fact that there are hundreds of apple varieties is an entirely different conversation altogether).

Some colleges admit the number of students they actually think will say yes to their offer based on historical models. They shoot to fill 100% on their initial round of offers knowing they will likely need to admit more students from their waitlist, due to melt in the summer 

Others will shoot closer to 90%-95%. They know they will come in well short of target, but this strategy allows them to work progressively up to 100+% to account for melt and limit admits. 

Problem 3: Colleges do not count their waitlist admits the same. At Tech for example, when we make waitlist offers, we count them all as admits. So, if we are looking for 100 students from the waitlist, we may make 200 offers knowing that typically 45%-50% will deposit. 

Some colleges, however, will first ask you if you want to accept their offer. If you say yes, and commit to depositing, only then do they count you as an admit. In other words, some colleges are basically yielding at 100% from their waitlist, thus limiting admit numbers.  

100% yield is often true for recruited/scholarship athletes, special skills or talents like musicians, and other cohorts depending on the school’s mission, i.e., military academies, etc.

So, take a college that brings in 20% of their class as athletes/special talents, 10% of their class from waitlist, and 50-60% of their class from Early Decision… well… admit rate protected, suppressed, controlled, you pick whatever adjective that makes you feel better.  

Look, I’m not throwing shade here. I’m just saying you cannot take a number like admit rate and attach too much meaning to it, because of the Seneca Crane level games-making going on out there.  

Advice from Experience

If you are a junior making a list of schools to research or possibly apply to next year, please do not correlate admit rate to quality. Please do not exclude colleges from your list because they are below a certain number of apps or above a specific admit rate…because, you know, the whole Garmin to Strava effect. 

If you are a senior, please do not unwisely stretch financially or let your ego get in the way this spring when you are deciding on a college. So have the confidence to be honest with yourself about your best match academically, socially, and financially, rather than attaching too much importance to stats that are at best not equivalent, or at worst highly manipulated.  

Instead, before applying to college or choosing one, I’d urge you to stick with the running theme and consider, “What are you Strava-ing for?”  

    

Myths and Misperceptions about the MBA

This week we welcome Katie Lloyd, Ed.D., Associate Dean, Evening and Full-time MBA Programs at the Scheller College of Business to the blog. Welcome, Katie!

Listen to “Myths and Misperceptions about the MBA – Katie Lloyd, Ed.D.” on Spreaker.

It’s never too early to think about your future. Now you might be shouting at the screen, “I just decided to attend _________! Of course, I’m thinking about my future.” Absolutely. Enjoy these noteworthy moments as well as your upcoming undergraduate experience. I hope it is only the beginning of a wonderful journey of lifelong learning.

College is an amazing time to explore new interests, activities, and relationships – and as you start to map out your future – an MBA is a great option to consider.

Photo taken prior to Covid-19 pandemic.

There is a lot of jargon, myths, and misperceptions associated with an MBA degree, so let’s break it down.

First: What is an MBA? An MBA, or Master of Business Administration, is a graduate program for students seeking a general graduate business degree. In addition to learning the basics, MBA programs also allow you to go deeper into business subject matter. There are a variety of MBA program formats available. Let’s tackle some of the myths and misperceptions surrounding the degree.

Myths

Myth #1: I should go to graduate school right after college.

An immediate path to graduate school may be the best course of action for some degrees, however, it’s ideal to gain work experience before applying to business school. A few good reasons to wait include:

  • MBA programs are built on classroom discussion and practical application. Students with work experience can contribute more to discussions and typically make better teammates.
  • Employers want to hire MBAs who have prior experience – and some companies require a minimum number of years. The requirement varies across industries, but three to five years is typical.
  • Students who have impressive pre-MBA profiles will have more post-MBA opportunities. More experience can also mean higher salaries.

Did you know? Some MBA programs, including Georgia Tech’s, allow you to apply for deferred admission into an MBA program your final year of college. You are still required to work before starting the MBA, but the deferred application process allows you to secure an MBA as a possible future option sooner.

Myth #2: I need to be an undergraduate business major.

It’s true that a bachelor’s degree in business can demonstrate critical thinking and analytical or quantitative aptitude, but so can engineering, sciences, and economics degrees. Students who pursue majors outside of these areas may also highlight aptitude by taking statistics, accounting, and other quantitative electives. MBA programs review the difficulty of your undergraduate degree and your performance. If your coursework can’t easily affirm potential success in graduate-level business classes, strong performance on the GMAT or GRE can help.

Photo taken prior to Covid-19 pandemic.

Myth #3: MBA programs only want applicants who are accountants, consultants, or entrepreneurs.

Absolutely untrue! While having an early career in any of these areas is great, it isn’t the only path to an MBA. Peace Corps volunteers, educators, engineers, veterans, architects, computer programmers, doctors, scientists, salespeople, journalists… they can all be qualified and compelling MBA candidates. Students who bring varied perspectives into the classroom encourage rich discussions and different approaches to problem solving.

Myth #4: MBA programs are only for Wall Street wannabes.

Just as MBA applicants bring a wide range of backgrounds into the program, MBA graduates also pursue a variety of careers afterwards. An MBA prepares you to make industry advances and significant career changes. You take a core curriculum in business fundamentals like finance, marketing, management, accounting, technology, operations, and strategy, and then can go deeper in one of them or specialize in something like real estate, sustainability, or innovation. Your classwork and projects, as well as extensive leadership and career development training, can lead to careers in almost every industry.

Did you know? Many MBA programs offer dual degree options that enable you to pursue two degrees simultaneously or consecutively. Popular options include the MD/MBA (medicine), JD/MBA (law), and MS/MBA and PhD/MBA in specific disciplines. At Georgia Tech, there are several dual degree choices. Masters or doctoral students who combine their studies can distinguish themselves in the hiring process and gain more long-term career flexibility. Also, it typically takes less time to complete the two degrees than if you were to do them independently.

Myth #5: MBAs are all about making money.

While many students return to school with the goal of increasing their salaries, MBA programs also help students build connections and do good within their communities. There are volunteering and community service opportunities, you can consult for non-profits, or even tackle environmental and social issues both during and after the program. Additionally, MBA students gain access to a new, diverse network that helps them build meaningful, often lifelong, relationships.

Photo taken prior to Covid-19 pandemic.

Myth #6: I need to leave my job to enroll in an MBA full-time.

Traditional MBA programs took students away from the workforce for two years. Now, there are many alternative formats. There are one-year accelerated programs, part-time options, online formats, and executive MBAs. The full-time, two-year option is still popular if you want to make a career change, as it allows you to gain relevant experience during a summer internship. Do your research and talk to admission offices to figure out which program may be the best for you.

Misperceptions

There are widely held misperceptions about most MBA admission processes. A few have been addressed in this blog series previously, but bear repeating:

Misperception #1: Most admission teams look for reasons to deny you.

While we look for certain desirable characteristics on your MBA application – we really are rooting for you! We have a lot of information to use in the evaluation process: undergraduate grades, leadership, work experience, recommendations, essays, test scores (sometimes), and an interview. You control these factors to a significant degree.

Misperception #2: Test scores are the most important factor.

While a strong performance on a standardized test (the GMAT and GRE are the most common) can help establish your quantitative aptitude, MBA programs emphasize other factors, too. In the past year, many programs have made the testing process optional, so the future of MBA standardized testing is a bit fuzzy.

For now, it’s best to think about taking a standardized test in your final year of college when your test taking skills are their sharpest. It may help you compete for admission and scholarships.

Misperception #3: MBA programs are expensive.

Yes, the cost is not negligible; however, many programs offer generous scholarships. And most candidates will experience bumps in salaries during or after completing the MBA. The typical candidate sees a return on their investment in 2 to 4 years and a lifetime of increased earnings.

I hope this knowledge about common myths and misconceptions surrounding the MBA arms you with one more option to consider for your future. As you begin your college experience, I encourage you to keep your goals beyond graduation top of mind and allow those goals to drive your decision making the next few years.

Now is the best time to be open to new opportunities and explore the unfamiliar. And you never know – perhaps the future will find you at Georgia Tech, achieving your goals as an MBA.

Dr. Katie Lloyd joined Georgia Tech’s Scheller College of Business in 2016. Bringing more than 20 years in graduate management education to Tech, Katie leads the Full-time and Evening MBA Programs as Associate Dean. She oversees all recruitment, admissions, and student experience efforts for these MBA programs. Katie is passionate about fostering a diverse, inclusive, and collaborative environment in which students and team members can reach their full potential. In addition to enjoying time with her husband and two children, Katie has been spending the last year learning how to paint.