The Future of College Admission?

Listen to “Episode 22: The Future of College Admission? – Rick Clark” on Spreaker.

Let me start by saying this: I’m no futurist. My family is quick to point out I’m wrong multiple times a day on a variety of subjects (game outcomes, how long to bake chicken, etc.) My co-workers can also enumerate many occasions when I’ve been dead wrong about direction, strategy, and approach.

But recently, whether it’s a virtual panel or webinar, a television, radio, or podcast interview, or even last week’s (virtual) fireside chat, the big question seems to be, “What’s the future of admission and enrollment?”

So, while I’m painfully aware that I don’t have all of the answers (and I’m not booking a flight to Vegas  to put cash on these predictions), I do see some distinct writing on the higher education wall for the year ahead.Perspective

(1) Most colleges will see fewer, or the same, rather than more applications this year.

Covid-19 hit colleges across the country extremely hard. Last week the National Clearinghouse published its most recent numbers. Overall enrollment is down 4%. Enrollment of first-year students is down 16.1% from 2019 (even more disturbing is that community colleges saw a 22.7% dip in enrollment).

As much as we’re all fatigued by this pandemic, it is not over. The financial impact on families, businesses, and communities is yet to be fully felt. As a result, I foresee 2021 seniors casting a narrower net when applying to college resulting in a lower application: student ratio.

Say what you will about testing, but those scores did provide a way for students to nod to schools and colleges to send them recruitment and application information. The mass cancellations and ensuing test-optional landslide has severely limited a big part of how colleges solicit applications through what we call “search.” Don’t get me wrong, I’m not crying about the The College Board or ACT coffers taking a financial hit. However, this traditional source of names and leads did generate thousands of applications nationally in the past, and nothing to this point has proven to directly replace it.

Talk to any admission person and they’ll tout how they’ve stood up more virtual visits and reached higher numbers of students through online programming, tours, or sessions. This is a great silver lining of Covid for both the short- and long-term. However, student Zoom fatigue combined with colleges’ inability to host families on campus and travel to high schools and communities will further deflate applications overall.

Going test score optional (TSO) normally serves to increase applications. But we’ve never seen this many schools go TSO at the same time. My guess is some will see a bump due to this change in policy, but the majority will not.

(2) Admit rates at most schools will go up this year.

Sure. This will in part be a function of flat (or less) applications, but it’s also a response to what we’ve experienced over the last two semesters in higher education. As Clearinghouse data shows, many schools lost undergraduates this year. Translation: they took a major financial hit and need to find ways to recover.

Public universities are going to be under pressure to grow. Those with big brands will be counted on by their state to buoy their overall system. With the tail of Covid coming like Smaug’s in Lord of the Rings, state appropriations to public schools will inevitably be hit hard. Growth expectations, reduced appropriations, and family financial uncertainty as a result of the pandemic all point to more offers of admission to make (and especially to attempt to grow) enrollment.

At privates, especially non-research institutions, tuition is the life blood. Given Covid’s impact on retention and finances last spring and into this fall (not to mention growing trepidation about Spring 2021) I expect these colleges to admit more students in hopes of remedying recent enrollment/net tuition revenue loss.

Let me be clear. There are going to be exceptions to this. Ivy League and Ivy-like schools with multibillion-dollar endowments will likely not be affected as much, so please don’t email me in six months saying I predicted Princeton’s admit rate was going to double. But here again we’re reminded those places are outliers and anomalies, not the signposts, in American Higher Education.

(3) Yield in general declines nationally.

The number or percentage of students who accept an offer of admission and pay an enrollment deposit is known as yield. In recent years, NACAC reported the average yield rate is approximately 33% (College Transitions provides a helpful yield breakdown by institution). Oregon State’s Jon Boeckenstedt produced this visualization earlier this week, which provides Roundabouteven more insight on the challenges and trends with yield and “draw rates.”

Given financial, medical/ health, and travel (distance from home) concerns, as well as the likelihood of most colleges admitting more students, I project yield will again decrease at most schools around the country.

(4) International applications decrease.

In recent years, I’ve had the opportunity through the State Department’s Office of Overseas Schools to travel to consulates and embassies abroad speaking to Americans and their contacts about higher education in the U.S.

During this time, I’ve seen a palpable shift in the conversations about college in America. Other nations, including Canada, Australia, Spain, and the Netherlands, among others, have become far more competitive and aggressive in their recruitment of students around the world.

Add political rhetoric, less than glowing media coverage about the pandemic in the United States, and the fragility of this demographic (which has been a boon for American colleges and universities, particularly since the 2008 recession) only increases. College admission officers’ inability to travel abroad this year further exacerbates the issue– and strengthens predictions 1-3.

(5) Bigger waitlists = longer cycle.

Selective colleges are going to hedge their bets on yield rates. This means they will likely put even more students on waitlists and start pulling students earlier in the cycle (in other words, expect to see more mid-April admits as healthy colleges see deposits roll come in).

Higher education is an ecosystem. As schools continue build their classes Admission Listthrough waitlist offers in May and June, they will be pulling those students away from other colleges. This activity and domino effect will extend deep into the summer, just as it did in 2020. We anticipated a more extended cycle as a result of NACAC’s CEPP adjustments and Covid has served to further elongate that timeline.

(Bonus) Gap year concern… not a thing.

I’m a Presbyterian and we normally stick to three or five points in a speech or article. But since so many have asked about gap years, I’ll include a bonus piece here. 

Harvard made news with 20% of their first-year students opting to take a gap year. This article lists a few other examples, such as Williams, Bates, and MIT, with big increases in gap year students. Understandably, since the press loves to cover schools like “Stanvard,” this has understandably raised concerns among 2021 high school graduates.

As I said earlier, I’ve been on a lot of panels with friends and colleagues from around the country lately. All of them (literally all of them) from schools with 7% to 77% admit rates, are saying the same thing: 2020 gap years are not “taking seats” from 2021 graduates.

Hopefully, everything I’ve laid out in this blog serves to reinforce one point—COLLEGES NEED STUDENTS! Now more than ever.

If the financial argument or the international argument or the health argument doesn’t convince you, here are Tech’s numbers. We granted about 130 gap years deferments. 49 of those will start this spring, 10 in the summer, and the rest next fall. We are not counting these students into our predictive model, but rather adding them to our new classes each term. In other words, they’re “extra seats” not “taking seats.”

Final Thoughts

If you are a junior, sophomore, ninth grader… all of this basically applies to you too. Higher education had its eye squarely on 2025 before the pandemic. Known as the “demographic cliff” we were all planning and preparing our administrations for a decrease in high school graduates, and therefore even more competition and enrollment instability. Covid has fast forwarded us toward the cliff. All of that to say, the future of higher education is trending towards higher admit rates and more options for students.

If you are a senior… I hope this gives you a bit of solace. If your goal in applying to college is to have choices and options (and it should be), I see that coming to fruition this year, assuming you choose a balanced list.

I know that high school is not wrapping up the way you’d hoped or envisioned (if you did envision this, please call me, as we’re working on predictive future models and I could use your help. Plus, we could make a killing in Vegas). However, if you can keep your head up, keep working hard in school and in your community, and maintain a long-term vision during a challenging time, I earnestly believe you’re going to come out of this better, stronger, and more prepared for wherever you end up in college next year.

If you are college counselor or college admission professional… Thank you! You’re probably not hearing that enough lately. We work under severe deadlines, many levels of scrutiny, and increasing pressure. If you’ve not heard it from anyone else this week, please slowly read this: THANK YOU! Thanks for all you are doing for your institution, students, and surrounding community. This is not easy work, but it is ineffably meaningful. Take care of yourself so you can keep taking care of those around you.

Covid is pushing and stretching us all. Throw in a contentious election season and divisive rhetoric on all mediums and it’s no wonder we are all exhausted. I hope in the days ahead you’ll find creative ways to renew, refresh, and share small moments of joy with those around you. Be well, friends.

The Best of Intentions

This week we welcome Regional Director of Admission (West Coast) Ashley Brookshire to the blog. Welcome, Ashley!

I love stories of wild animals mistakenly brought into people’s homes. While some of these stories are fake, it’s easy for us to believe that it could happen. You know the drill. It starts with a well-meaning, kind hearted (yet naive) individual who sees what they believe is a domestic pet in distress. They bring the creature into their home and give the animal what’s “best” for it: food, a bath, a warm bed. The images become public when this do-gooder posts them to social media, or a neighborhood app, hoping to reunite the scared, mangy, and increasingly irritated “pet” with its owner.

The entire time they are operating with the best of intentions, but unfortunately end up trying to fit a square peg in a round hole (or a mountain lion in a bathtub). It’s only when others chime in to widen their frame of reference (“that’s not a cat, its possum”) does the person start to gain perspective. Maybe the solution offered wasn’t best for the animal in question after all.

Mountain lion in a bathtub
Mountain lion in a bathtub (psst… hoax alert!)

The best meaning people in your community will have an abundance of opinions to offer as you go through the college application process: what is most important about a college experience… what athletic division is best… why you should go Greek… the one thing colleges care about in the application process… the sure-fire way to be admitted. Buckle up – this won’t be the only time you receive rapid-fire, unsolicited advice during a life chapter (weddings and pregnancies have a very similar effect on people).

Stop and Reflect

All of this advice is typically very well intended. Some of it may even resonate with you. But a lot of it may feel like grooming a coyote: it just doesn’t fit. Before you take to heart every piece of college-going advice you receive, stop and reflect:

  • Is the advice from someone who is a repeated participant in the college admission process (like a school counselor)? Or is it from someone speaking from a single experience, like your uncle who will likely disown his own children if they don’t attend his alma mater?
  • Are you learning about campus through the perspective of current students, or an alumna whose time in college didn’t include the internet?
  • Are you learning about requirements admission offices consider while reviewing applications from a representative of the school, or from the friend of your older sister who applied to three colleges five years ago?

Everyone – EVERYONE – has valuable wisdom and insight they can share from their experiences. Take time to listen to what those around you choose to share. After all, wild animal or pet, we can all appreciate a free meal from someone who cares. But please, keep in mind when people speak from their experiences, their perspective can be very limited—especially when it comes to talking about the “right” or “wrong” way to go through a process.

Have Perspective

Instead, think about the perspectives that some of the individuals mentioned above can provide, and how that may resonate with your search. While your uncle may not be the best person to talk about Early Action vs. Early Decision, he can certainly speak to the value of school spirit as part of his undergraduate experience and as an alum. While an older alumna may not know all today’s undergraduate experience entails, she does know how her university experience and network prepared her for life after college. And while your sister’s friend may not be an expert on enrollment management, she can share wisdom into the strategies she used to navigate the process (and keep her sanity).

Consider the SourceEqually important, learn where you should go to get information from the most appropriate source. Repeat participants in the college admission process, like your high school counselor and college admission representatives, can speak to trends and best practices. Questions about common application pitfalls, recommended timelines, and possible outcomes should absolutely be directed to these individuals.

While I love the Institute I represent, the reality is I am a paid staff member of the school. I take pride in the fact that our office and campus community operate with authenticity and transparency, but at the end of the day I am biased about opportunities at Georgia Tech (if I wasn’t, this would be a terribly challenging career). Our brochures, website, and admission presentations are also biased in highlighting the benefits of an undergraduate career spent on our campus. Keep that in mind as you use college-provided resources as part of your search. While incredibly helpful, they also have an agenda.

Current students are an invaluable resource to your college search. Unlike paid staff and faculty, students are consumers of the undergraduate experience and will provide you with a review from their perspective. That’s why so many resources about campus visits encourage you to engage with students in the dining hall, on the sidewalk, or at the student center. They will undoubtedly provide insight beyond the scope of the official school tour or information session you just completed as part of your visit.

Consider your resources and use them appropriately. Understand that those around you are excited for you, want to help you through your search, and are very well intended. But, also understand that wild mountain lions don’t need a good shampoo. Similarly, make sure the tools you’re using and the advice you’re considering makes sense for you and your college search.

Ashley Brookshire is an Atlanta native and Georgia Tech alumna who has worked in college admission for nearly a decade. Ashley serves as Georgia Tech’s Regional Director of Admission for the West Coast, making her home in Southern California. She’s been a California resident for more than 5 years and is a member of the Regional Admission Counselors of California.

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You GET To Do This!

Listen to the audio version here!

A few weeks ago I had the opportunity to spend time walking around farms in South Georgia as part of a leadership program. It was fascinating to hear farmers’ perspectives on everything from supply and demand to organic growing practices; from their daily monitoring and speculation about consumer behavior for their crops to the evolution of technology in farm equipment.

What struck me in particular was a simple concept: as a farmer, your job is to put a seed in the ground. Then you water it, fertilize it, pray over it, watch it grow, lose sleep worrying about it, and ultimately harvest it months later.Field

If you’ve read this blog for long, you know that (like the old school Tootsie Roll commercials) pretty much anything I see or hear reminds me of college admission in some way. That day was no different. Standing out in those fields, I could not help thinking about the months ahead and all the planning, time, work, and care it will take to enroll our next class.

#AdmissionsLife 

Fall is all about travel and recruitment—putting seeds in the ground, if you will. In fact, I started writing this post right before midnight on a Friday, and we’re still 30 minutes from landing at the Atlanta airport. This trip began in a very similar fashion to most trips in the fall: in the dark, as I crept out of my house Tuesday morning around 5 a.m. to catch a flight. Over the course of the next month, I’ll take three similar trips—early mornings, late nights, rental cars, and hotel breakfasts. That’s what you do in the fall in college admission: travel, shake hands, give talks, pass out business cards— rinse and repeat. (SIDE NOTE: The next time you see a college admission representative at your school or local college fair, ask them how they’re doing and give them a restaurant recommendation, or a good place to go for a walk or run.)

Four SeasonsWinter is all about reading applications. Like a farmer caring for and regularly inspecting crops, this season is long and protracted, with intensely critical monitoring and attention required throughout. There are no short cuts: tracking down transcripts, reading applications, ensuring test scores have been reported, reading applications, answering emails, reading applications, eating copious amounts of take-out food, reading applications. I mentioned reading applications, right? At Georgia Tech, we likely will receive more applications than we did last year— let’s conservatively say 38,000. To review these in our holistic process will take about 40 of us reading from mid-October to mid-March.

In the spring, we release admission decisions and immediately turn our attention to hosting admitted families trying to make a final college choice, as well as talking to prospective juniors and sophomores on their spring break barnstorm of college tours.

I relate to the farmer who is constantly gauging and adjusting to supply and demand. Based on applications and class size, our expected admit rate this year is around 20%, meaning we will deny admission to over 30,000 students (three times the number of applicants we had when I started at Tech). It’s not fun, and not why I got into this business. So spring is also about speaking with hundreds of incredibly talented students who are frustrated and deeply disappointed they were not offered admission. Ultimately, if our predictions are right, we will “yield” our crop… I mean class… of 2,900 students by the May 1 National Deposit Deadline.

I’m not that smart, and I’m no fortune teller. But college admission is cyclical, so I know these things are coming. It would be easy to look at the next eight months as time away from home and family in the fall; an over-caffeinated, pizza-fueled hibernation of sorts in the winter; and an oxymoronic persona of happy host/dream killer in this spring. (Anyone want a job?)

I GET to Do This

Immediately after leaving those farms in South Georgia, we heard from the Commissioner of Agriculture. One of the phrases he used was, “I get to do this.” His point was every day, every week, every month, and even every year, we make a choice about how we’ll approach life. Will our mentality be: “I have to do this” or “I need to do this”? Or, instead, “I get to do this.”?

That’s the phrase that went through my head early Saturday morning when I dragged myself from bed, shot Visine into my jet-lagged eyes, made a cup of coffee and headed out to coach a 7-year old girls’ soccer team. I get to do this!

That mindset fundamentally changes my outlook. I get to travel around the country to cities and states many people will never see. I get to read the applications of truly remarkable students who tell stories about innovative ideas, inspiring dreams, ambitious goals, tremendous impact, and amazing  challenges they overcame. I get to spend months working closely with a caring, funny, smart, dedicated staff. I get to constantly meet new people and tell them about a college I love and believe in. I get to articulate the value of higher education and try to bring some levity and solace to the often-anxious college admission experience. While we cannot admit everyone, I get to offer admission to thousands of students. I get to do this. What a privilege! What an honor! What an opportunity!

You GET to Do This

What do you have to do today? What must you do this week or month? What do you need to do this year?I Get To Vs I Have To

How does your mentality, perspective, attitude, and motivation change when you consider what you get to do today?

If you are reading this, you are one of the incredibly fortunate people who gets to apply to college. You get to go to school— probably one that offers a lot of really good classes, alongside peers who want to excel, and taught by teachers who hope to see you learn, grow, and succeed. You get to work or practice or be with your family. Sadly, these are opportunities too few around our country and world enjoy.

This should not make you feel guilty. However, I hope it’s motivating. I hope it alters your perspective. Admittedly, I hope it results in you giving someone in your house or school a hug, a note, a text, or a sincere, “Thank you!” You get to do this.

You get to spend another year at home. You get to share a room or a car or a meal or clothes with a little sister. You get to listen to your dad’s stories or your mom’s lessons or your neighbor’s jokes a few more times over the upcoming months. What a privilege! What an honor! What an opportunity! EMBRACE IT.

Again, I’m no fortune teller, but here is what I see coming for you in the months ahead:

  • You will likely be denied or waitlisted by a school or three. I did. Most of my friends did. I am guessing if you talk to many friends who are in college now they did too. It’s not the end of the world. In fact, sometimes those closed doors help point you to the right place.
  • You probably won’t get all the scholarships or financial aid you hope to receive. I have a colleague who says, “The students who don’t get in want in. The students who got in want money. The students who got money want more money. And the students who got in and got all the money wanted it from somewhere else.” (What can I say? Some of us admission farmers are a bit cynical.)
  • You’ll see a few people you don’t think are as talented, capable, or deserving as you get into schools you want to attend. College admission is not fair—it’s driven by supply and demand and institutional mission. If you are a carrot and that college needs more squash that year, well…you cannot control those market conditions.

But just as I know the great essays, amazing stories, and community changing ventures are coming, you need to trust and know you will also get some great admission offers. You will to find a college where you will make lifelong friendships and create a lifelong network. How do those long-term results come about? You put a seed in the ground. You change your mentality. And you can do that today!

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